Good morning, Mr. Chair and members of the committee.
Thank you for the invitation to appear before you.
My name is Travis Allan, and I'm the president and CEO of the Canadian Charging Infrastructure Council.
We are an industry association that represents over half of the EV charging stations in Canada, and our objective is to expand Canada's charging infrastructure. When we do that, we create jobs, we attract investment and we leverage Canada's clean energy advantages.
Over the coming decades, if Canada is able to achieve its electrification objectives, our industry will commit billions of dollars to the Canadian economy, and as you likely know because you've been studying this matter, transportation is Canada's second-largest greenhouse gas emissions contributor on a sectoral basis and charging is, of course, fundamental to trying to get that under control.
Canadians, when surveyed, will typically tell you that the availability of home or near-home charging and public charging is essential in their decision to adopt an EV, so how we get there is primarily a question of economics. At the end of the day, the charging industry is a commercial business, and particularly when we look at public fast charging, the cost of the newer, faster charging stations that are being deployed all over Canada can be around $125,000 per port. The way that you convince capital providers to fund those stations is by looking at the anticipated demand for EV charging, which is typically measured by the number of vehicles on the road, and, of course, you need to look at the cost factors.
The money that is invested isn't just for the charging stations. In fact, most of it is typically spent on local trades across Canada, like electrical contractors and civil contractors. This is obviously a massive infrastructure project, and the only thing right now that is creating some real headwinds in the space is questions around the regulatory and financing structures that have been put in place to help catalyze this industry.
The specific challenge is that unlike an industry that's in a steady state model, the EV charging industry is being buffeted by trade challenges from our southern neighbours, but it is also being asked to invest not with a one-year return horizon but, typically, with a 10-year return horizon.
We need to forecast not only the charging right now but the charging five to seven years in advance. Whenever those financial models are put together for capital providers, they use the EV availability standard as the floor. That is the regulatory floor that allows them to make appropriate assumptions about the revenue that is required, so if we're going to meet Canadians where they are with respect to charging access, we need to find a way to give capital providers the certainty they need to green-light those investments.
So far, our industry has done very well. We estimate that we have about a million EV drivers in Canada, or folks who've chosen EVs, and we have over 7,500 public charging ports the last time I checked. We have 30,000 public level 2 charging ports, and many residential stations, because that's where most Canadians will charge between 70% to 90% of the time if they have access. This roughly lines up with the ratios that we believe are warranted based on the current stock of electric vehicles. Not only that, but we are on track to continue to achieve the targets under the current EV availability standard if we continue with the rate of investment that has been over 25% for the last five years running.
If the EV availability standard is reduced, that means capital providers will not green-light as many new stations, and the implications can be very significant.
We have done some analysis at CCIC in a recent policy-maker brief and found that if the target is changed from 60% by 2030 to 40%, this is likely to result in a 38% decrease in the number of charging stations that would be built. If that target goes down to 30% by 2030, it is likely to result in a 62% reduction in stations built versus what would have been built under the current targets, simply because there is a cumulative impact. Every year all the way up to the 2030 target, you're seeing fewer EVs sold, which means there's lower demand, so you get non-linear impacts.