I'm Michael Rosenberg, president of the Economics of Technology Working Group, which is an independent organization that has an office here in Toronto.
The topics I want to discuss are the measurement of the economy, the productivity issues, and the effects of natural resources pricing and how that relates to climate change and carbon pricing.
The measurement of the economy is properly done using the net domestic product, which is published by Statistics Canada along with the gross domestic product. Although everybody tends to use the gross domestic product under the assumption that it equals the total output of the economy, in fact it does not. It is greater than the total output of the economy. Just as a business has to take its gross revenue and subtract certain expenses to get its profits, you have to go through a similar process with the total economic production. In fact, some of that is already done in the gross domestic product. If it weren't, the gross domestic product would be several times larger than it actually is, if you just added up everybody's revenue.
Nevertheless, it is not the final result; it is an intermediate result in the calculation. That's why it is called “gross.” It does not contain the subtraction of depreciated or depleted capital. Once you subtract that from the gross domestic product, you get the net domestic product. Obviously, the net domestic product is the actual amount of production, because if all a company does is produce enough to replace its worn-out capital and it goes on doing that year after year, it hasn't produced anything. That portion of its production is not output. Therefore it is the same thing for the entire economy.
When you measure the economy that way, you find out it has generally increased at about 1% less than the gross domestic product numbers would indicate, or, when the economy is shrinking, it goes down at a 1% rate more than would be otherwise indicated. Furthermore, when you calculate in terms of per capita, which is what you really want to know in terms of how well the economy is doing, that's an extra 1%.
Generally speaking, we've had a number of small recessions that were never reported, and during this recession it has been much larger than as reported. So far there's been one quarter of data since the submission I made, so I can now say that the decline in this economy has been 9.5%. That's almost 10% of production that was going on a year ago that's not going on now.
That's as large as the 1990s recession and much larger than the 1980s recession. The point that this leads to is that productivity has not been increasing since the mid-1970s. There's been a certain number of ups and downs in the economy related to how many people are working at any given time, but there has not been any improvement in productivity. The effects of technology on productivity are generally to add a lot of additional expenses.
Once those are considered by considering the capital cost, which is what I'm emphasizing here, you find out that basically for all of the technological advances we have, at best it's been somewhat neutral over the last 30 years. We are now heading into a period of resource limitations, which means that with all of those resources being used up in technological and capital developments, the actual prospects are for productivity to decline as less is available for actual output. This is the first recession in which productivity has actually declined, so the decline in the economy during this recession has been partially due to a decline in productivity and partially due to fewer people working. In the past it's been only because of the decline in the number of people working. We are in a diminishing return situation.
Lastly, on natural resource pricing, I just want to give you the thought that a cap and trade system or anything else that puts a price on carbon is not a harm to the economy. It's not like people are saying that we have to do this to save the environment and it may cost something to the economy. That's not how you should think of it. You should think of it as, if we continue to emit carbon, we're doing real physical damage that will reduce the economy in the future. Therefore, to price that into the price now will actually improve the economy because of the allocation that it results in.