Evidence of meeting #30 for Finance in the 45th Parliament, 1st session. (The original version is on Parliament’s site, as are the minutes.) The winning word was pbo.
A video is available from Parliament.
Deputy Director, Partnership, Policy and Analysis, FINTRAC, As an Individual
My two priorities are to analyze the sustainability of the fiscal framework and to look at the government's ability to deliver on its commitments for programs and projects, especially the major projects announced in the last budget or scheduled for the upcoming budget.
Liberal
Deputy Director, Partnership, Policy and Analysis, FINTRAC, As an Individual
I think that we can start to look at these issues. However, the work of supporting Parliament is an ongoing process.
Liberal
Liberal
Steeve Lavoie Liberal Beauport—Limoilou, QC
In 20 seconds, can you tell the people of my constituency, Beauport—Limoilou, why independence matters so much in your role?
Deputy Director, Partnership, Policy and Analysis, FINTRAC, As an Individual
The Office of the Parliamentary Budget Officer has 40 employees, whereas there are 369,000 federal public servants, so—
Liberal
The Chair Liberal Karina Gould
Thank you, Ms. Ryan. We need to stop here.
I'll now give the floor to Mr. Garon for two and a half minutes.
Bloc
Jean-Denis Garon Bloc Mirabel, QC
Thank you, Madam Chair.
I'll continue along the same lines as my colleague, Mr. Lavoie, for the benefit of the people of both Mirabel and Beauport—Limoilou.
The Office of the Parliamentary Budget Officer has about 40 employees. The teams won't change much. When a new parliamentary budget officer arrives, there may be a change in the work methods or in the selection of mandates, for example. Of course, we know that the Office of the Parliamentary Budget Officer works a great deal with us, the opposition members, given that we have fewer resources than the government. I think that you know this.
Compared to our previous situation when Mr. Jacques was in office, what will change in our relationship with the Office of the Parliamentary Budget Officer or in the selection of mandates? What will change with you? What new things can we expect?
Deputy Director, Partnership, Policy and Analysis, FINTRAC, As an Individual
I want to proceed gradually. I want to see the models that the office has built. I want to see the priorities that it established by listening to parliamentarians. As a result, I don't think that you'll see any major changes immediately. By the fall, I want to have made my mark on the role, particularly with regard to the two priorities that I just discussed with Mr. Lavoie.
Bloc
Jean-Denis Garon Bloc Mirabel, QC
Obviously, Mr. Jacques is continuing to work in the Office of the Parliamentary Budget Officer. He'll be working with you. How do you see his role? How will you work with him? Have you started thinking about this?
Deputy Director, Partnership, Policy and Analysis, FINTRAC, As an Individual
I've known Mr. Jacques for over 20 years. I've also known other senior officials in the Office of the Parliamentary Budget Officer for 30 years. I think that my task is to continue to show the respect and collegiality already established as professionals in the same line of work.
Bloc
Jean-Denis Garon Bloc Mirabel, QC
However, does the fact that Mr. Jacques held this position, albeit on an interim basis, give him special expertise or a special role?
I'm curious to know how things work when you arrive under these circumstances. How do you see this?
Deputy Director, Partnership, Policy and Analysis, FINTRAC, As an Individual
I listened to Mr. Jacques's remarks to the Standing Committee on Government Operations and Estimates and to other committees. He openly expressed a willingness to work with the next “directeur parlementaire du budget”. I hope that this will be the case, even though it will be a “directrice parlementaire du budget”. I think that it will be a matter of taking the same approach that you take when you start in any role and—
Liberal
The Chair Liberal Karina Gould
Thank you, Ms. Ryan. Mr. Garon's time is now up.
We are going to continue now with Mr. Hallan for five minutes.
Conservative
Jasraj Singh Hallan Conservative Calgary East, AB
Ms. Ryan, at the time of the budget 2025 report, the PBO raised concerns about the government's abandoning of fiscal anchors, such as the declining debt-to-GDP ratio. As an economist yourself, do you share those concerns that the absence of fiscal anchors increases fiscal risk?
Deputy Director, Partnership, Policy and Analysis, FINTRAC, As an Individual
I do share the concern that it's utterly important to keep eyes on fiscal sustainability, debt levels and deficit levels.
I think that what Jason surfaced was a concern that the levels of that deficit track were taking a marked step up from what they had previously been. I think that the discussion since that time has reached something of a consensus—it's not everybody—that this track is sustainable. I think there remains a concern that if we were to see future jumps up, future stepwise increases in those debt and deficit levels—
Conservative
Jasraj Singh Hallan Conservative Calgary East, AB
With all due respect, Ms. Ryan, they jump up every single time under this government. The amount of spending.... Currently, the government is adding another $60 billion to that. In other words, it is going to jump up.
Again, my question was about the fiscal anchors being abandoned. Is that not a risk, financially, for the country?
Deputy Director, Partnership, Policy and Analysis, FINTRAC, As an Individual
I agree that it is a risk.
I would also go back to my earlier remarks. I said that the parliamentary budget office has a clear role in the accountability of the government, tracking the implications of those spending increases through time, continuing to hold their feet to the fire, asking, “What is happening in terms of debt to GDP?” and so on.
Conservative
Jasraj Singh Hallan Conservative Calgary East, AB
I appreciate that, because that's exactly what's happening, as it always does. The increase in the deficit, even after that budget was tabled, is now about $60 billion more.
The PBO also reported that any increased spending, with the lack of fiscal anchors that we're seeing, leaves little to no room to respond to economic shocks.
We all know what's going on around the world. Would you share those same concerns?
Deputy Director, Partnership, Policy and Analysis, FINTRAC, As an Individual
I share the view that it's important to leave fiscal room to deal with shocks. I think there remains room in the current track to deal with shocks. I also think it's not a contradiction to say that it's important to keep eyes on that track in order to make sure this buffer remains.
Conservative
Jasraj Singh Hallan Conservative Calgary East, AB
Right now, the deficit from that budget is about $78 billion. As we know, it was double what Justin Trudeau's economic update was, at the time. The government is notorious, as we know, for adding more spending every year, which likely means deficits will be higher than projected. That's just a track record. At the time, the PBO projected deficits around, as I said, $60 billion over the next five years. With what we're going through right now, which seems like economic stagnation and weak productivity, would you characterize the $60-billion-plus deficit as fiscally responsible?
Deputy Director, Partnership, Policy and Analysis, FINTRAC, As an Individual
I think it is sustainable and that—
Conservative
Deputy Director, Partnership, Policy and Analysis, FINTRAC, As an Individual
I think that—