Evidence of meeting #30 for Finance in the 45th Parliament, 1st session. (The original version is on Parliament’s site, as are the minutes.) The winning word was pbo.
A video is available from Parliament.
Conservative
Éric Lefebvre Conservative Richmond—Arthabaska, QC
What about increasing the debt load by continuing to increase the size of government, as is the case? Do you agree with that as well?
Deputy Director, Partnership, Policy and Analysis, FINTRAC, As an Individual
That's not the same thing as what you asked me. If the plan continues to grow in the way Mr. Kelly described, I think that's different. That should be looked at to make sure it doesn't happen.
Liberal
The Chair Liberal Karina Gould
Thank you, Ms. Ryan.
Thank you, Mr. Lefebvre.
It seems that there is general agreement among the parties that we will have one more round from the Liberals and one more round from the Bloc, so I will turn it over to Mr. MacDonald for five minutes, please.
Liberal
Kent MacDonald Liberal Cardigan, PE
Thank you, Madam Chair.
Ms. Ryan, we were getting to your answer on a question from quite a few minutes ago now. We were talking about Parliament's understanding of fiscal issues and the economic landscape that we're under right now. I referenced the Iran war, oil prices and the trade wars with the U.S.
What role do you feel the PBO will play in advising parliamentarians of probable policy changes we're going to have to make more quickly than we ever have before? Do you have any advice on that?
Deputy Director, Partnership, Policy and Analysis, FINTRAC, As an Individual
There will be many questions that are truly within the realm of parliamentarians to decide. Some of those can be informed by economic or budgetary analysis, and others cannot.
If you take the case of the Iran war, let's go back to the start of the parliamentary budget office in 2008, when one of the questions of the day was whether the government should insert itself into the conflict in Afghanistan. At the time, the government was saying that the cost of that would be in the order of $8 billion or $9 billion, and the Parliamentary Budget Officer of the day, Kevin Page, said it was up to Parliament to decide whether to engage our military in this conflict. He said that, respectfully, our analysis was that the cost would be much more like $19 billion or $20 billion dollars.
That is a good example of the type of question where elements of a decision like that, the diplomatic or military considerations, are not appropriate for a PBO to weigh in on. However, if there are big questions where there should be attention paid to whether the government's estimates are correct, or whether there would be unintended consequences or whether there are risks that the government either hasn't foreseen or hasn't been transparent about, the PBO can absolutely be a support to parliamentarians for those types of questions that are going to come with the very uncertain and volatile world that faces Canada.
Liberal
Kent MacDonald Liberal Cardigan, PE
I have another line of questions. I've been intrigued by the way parliamentary budget officers have become a household name in the past two decades. That probably wasn't the case or the intention starting out. The role of the Parliamentary Budget Officer is to be impartial and to make analyses of government decisions to help Canadians overall and parliamentarians understand our fiscal position.
Would you like to comment on that? Will everyone know who Ms. Ryan is in seven years? In my opinion, we shouldn't know who Ms. Ryan is. We should know what her analysis is. We should be able to read the analysis, and that should be the message that's left with us. I'd just like your opinion on that.
Deputy Director, Partnership, Policy and Analysis, FINTRAC, As an Individual
The legislation of the Parliament of Canada Act is clear that the role of the PBO is “to support...the quality of parliamentary debate”, for example by providing macroeconomic or budgetary forecasts. I see the PBO as supporting parliamentarians. The Parliamentary Budget Officer should not lead the debate but rather support the debate.
I will step forward and explain analysis. I will ask the tough questions. I will do the pointy homework to support those debates. I don't have a view of where I should be on people's radar. I'm happy to step forward and explain things if they need explaining; I'm also happy to let the work speak for itself. That's how I would approach your question.
Liberal
Deputy Director, Partnership, Policy and Analysis, FINTRAC, As an Individual
That's the goal that I've had for my whole career.
Liberal
The Chair Liberal Karina Gould
Thank you, Mr. MacDonald.
To conclude, Mr. Garon, you have the floor for two and a half minutes.
Bloc
Jean-Denis Garon Bloc Mirabel, QC
Thank you, Madam Chair.
Ms. Ryan, you were introduced as one of the five people with the best knowledge of the transfer system. I have no doubt about that. I think you have that expertise, which means that you also have some knowledge of the public finances of the provinces and their fiscal situation.
Would you consider Quebec's fiscal path to be sustainable today?
Deputy Director, Partnership, Policy and Analysis, FINTRAC, As an Individual
I haven't looked at Quebec's fiscal framework recently.
Bloc
Deputy Director, Partnership, Policy and Analysis, FINTRAC, As an Individual
I'll look into it.
Bloc
Jean-Denis Garon Bloc Mirabel, QC
That's fine, duly noted.
In recent years, the government has increasingly used federal spending power and interfering in areas of jurisdiction in which it has no power to legislate, according to section 92 of the Constitution.
What do you think of the use of federal spending power? You touched on fiscal federalism earlier. What are your thoughts on that? Do you think that's a desirable power? Do you think there should be a framework for that?
Deputy Director, Partnership, Policy and Analysis, FINTRAC, As an Individual
Your question is similar to what was discussed earlier with Mr. MacDonald, as to which part of a debate about entering into a war is an economic or budgetary issue rather than a parliamentary one.
Bloc
Jean-Denis Garon Bloc Mirabel, QC
Okay.
Let's go back to your comments on Afghanistan. The federal government can decide to use its spending power unchecked and interfere in provincial jurisdictions, even if it can't legislate. You see your role as that of an observer. If you are asked how much something costs, if you are asked to assess the costs, you will do that, but you will never pass judgment on that power or on the federal government's powers per se.
Did I understand correctly how you see your mandate?
Deputy Director, Partnership, Policy and Analysis, FINTRAC, As an Individual
I think it will require discussions with you and your counterparts to clarify the matters on which the Office of the Parliamentary Budget Officer could enlighten you. I think it's clear, the issue of jurisdiction and—
Bloc
Jean-Denis Garon Bloc Mirabel, QC
For example, would you be open to expressing reservations about the fact that a government can sometimes exceed its own jurisdiction? Could you express some reservations about that? Is that how you see your mandate? That is included in the legislation that sets out your mandate, or your future mandate, if you become the Parliamentary Budget Officer.
Liberal
Deputy Director, Partnership, Policy and Analysis, FINTRAC, As an Individual
I am comfortable working with you to clarify what analyses you would like to have.
Liberal
The Chair Liberal Karina Gould
Thank you very much.
I understand that we have an agreement to conclude this conversation that we're having with Ms. Ryan. I just want to confirm that. Unless there are any objections, we will end the rounds of questioning there.
That's an okay. Thank you.
On behalf of the committee, Ms. Ryan, I would like to thank you very much for your time today and for answering all of these questions.
Before we conclude the meeting, however, there are three budgets that have been sent around. The first is the budget for the household debt study in Canada. The second is for the study for the Canada pension plan investments in Canada. The third is for today's meeting.
Unless there are any objections, can I...?
There is an objection.
Mr. Garon, you have the floor.
Bloc
Jean-Denis Garon Bloc Mirabel, QC
Since we still have five minutes left and the Conservatives like to work, I thought I would ask a question.
I'm curious about something. Obviously, we support budgets, and that's fine, but I'm curious to know whether those budgets are spent in general and whether we can have updates on the actual amounts spent. I saw an amount of $36,000 for a study. I would just like to know if there is any follow-up on that and how it is done.
I'm just curious, actually.
Liberal
The Chair Liberal Karina Gould
Yes, we could certainly give you that information.
As I understand it, we may be asking for higher amounts for those budgets to make sure we have the flexibility needed, but we're not using the entire amounts.
Absolutely, we can send that information to committee members.