Thank you, Mr. Chair and honourable members of the committee.
It's a pleasure to be here making my first-ever appearance in front of a House of Commons committee. Thank you for the opportunity to share my expertise with you.
Household debt in Canada is elevated and has been exceeding 170% of disposable income for roughly the past 15 years. Canadian households are third among the most indebted in the 44 countries that the BIS, the Bank for International Settlements, is tracking. We're just behind Switzerland and Australia.
As a result of the elevated level of debt, the average Canadian household must spend about 15% of its disposable income to make the obligatory payments on the debt. This includes both interest and principal. Given that some households are debt-free, we can imagine that the debt service ratio is likely to be significantly higher for a proportion of the population.
The high level of household debt renders the Canadian economy more vulnerable to shock. In recent years, household finances have been under pressure due to the erosion of purchasing power resulting from higher inflation and weak income growth and from higher interest rates. This has led to an increase in household financial stress.
However, there are some signs that the economic system is flexible, allowing households to adapt to the environment of higher interest rates. As such, while consumers' insolvencies have increased sharply in recent years and are approaching their highest level since the global financial crisis, the increase is mainly in proposals, mainly in what could be seen as renegotiations of the terms of those lendings, rather than bankruptcies.
As a reference, bankruptcies are currently 40% lower than they were pre-pandemic and account for less than 25% of total insolvencies, compared to about 40% of insolvencies pre-pandemic and 80% of insolvencies during the global financial crisis.
There is evidence that households are lengthening the amortization period of their debt to reduce the impact of higher interest rates on their debt payments. While this means that households will carry debt for longer and will increase the total debt cost, it has prevented a surge in the debt service ratio in recent years, making their debt more sustainable. This flexibility exists only because household income has remained solid.
The resilience of the labour market in recent years, characterized by a lack of major layoffs, has played a crucial role. Any significant increase in layoffs leading to a decline in income would rapidly remove the flexibility in the system, with potentially serious consequences for households' financial situations, Canada's financial system and the economic outlook, hence the increased economic vulnerability caused by a high level of household indebtedness.
The high level of household debt has also had some broad structural impacts on the Canadian economy. There is evidence that the constant high household borrowing over the past 30 years, at an average pace of about 44% of GDP per year, has crowded out business investment, thereby negatively affecting productivity growth over the past few decades. This is very similar to how big government spending and deficits in the late 1970s and 1980s crowded out business investment. The result can be seen in the fact that Canadians were recently spending almost as much, as a share of GDP, on home renovation and home ownership transfer costs—in other words, exchanging homes—as they did on machinery, equipment and intellectual property.
There is an important feedback loop between poor productivity growth, affordability and household finance. Weak productivity growth led to tepid salary gains and stagnant income. As such, disposable income per person, adjusted for inflation—a measure of purchasing power—has been growing at a pace since 2015 that is a full percentage point slower, on average, than it was between 1995 and 2015. The cumulative impact of those slower gains in purchasing power means that Canadians have lost about 10% in purchasing power compared to where they should have been if income growth had remained the same.
Let me conclude with this important point on the subject. The affordability crisis and the increase in financial stress are as much an issue of underperforming incomes as they are of rising costs.
With that, I will be happy to answer the committee's questions.
