Evidence of meeting #45 for Finance in the 45th Parliament, 1st session. (The original version is on Parliament’s site, as are the minutes.) The winning word was subamendment.
A video is available from Parliament.
Conservative
Andrew Lawton Conservative Elgin—St. Thomas—London South, ON
Thank you.
With all respect to my colleague, Monsieur Lavoie, and you, Madam Chair, I don't believe that I was being repetitive, because I'm working my way through the appendix that we've been told makes our subamendment not relevant, and explaining the points of contrast between the two. I'll try to be clearer with that, and if that point is not landing, I'm happy to go back and cover anything again if needed, but—
Conservative
Andrew Lawton Conservative Elgin—St. Thomas—London South, ON
Okay, but if the point was not heard, I wanted to make sure that I was not leaving out my colleague, who I think is very invested and involved in this and wants to serve Canadians well, as I do.
I'll just look at the demographic assumptions, given the nature of the pension system in Canada. For the populations of Canada and Quebec, with July 24 used as a starting point, the projected populations needed for the CPP calculations are the populations of Canada less Quebec.
Given the nature of how CPP works, we understand, but how the chief actuary gets this is that they look at projecting age and sex from one year to the next by adding births and net migrants and subtracting deaths. The annual numbers of births, net migrants—other than temporary residents, who are not factored into this—and deaths are determined by applying the fertility, migration and mortality assumptions to the starting population.
This is just demography. This is just population. This is one subset of this whole bundle of numbers on which we need to have accurate or somewhat accurate actuarial data. Even this one number has embedded in it several things that are highly subject to change. We saw births, for example, go up during COVID, with people locked in their homes—
Conservative
Andrew Lawton Conservative Elgin—St. Thomas—London South, ON
I don't know why everyone's laughing at that. We saw the demographic data on that. Births went up during COVID.
On migration, we have seen in the last 10 years significant year-over-year increases, followed by a recognition that this was not economically sustainable for the country. If you had projected in 2023 any sort of long-term calculation based on what at the time were the migration data for Canada, your numbers would be—
Bloc
Jean-Denis Garon Bloc Mirabel, QC
It's not just question period, a part of the day I enjoy so much that I must insist, but doesn't it say somewhere in the Standing Orders that committees are to suspend before question period to give members enough time to get to the House and participate? The clerk can tell us.
Liberal
The Chair Liberal Karina Gould
No.
Committees are masters of their own decisions. If you'd like to ask the committee to suspend, you're welcome to do that.
Bloc
Jean-Denis Garon Bloc Mirabel, QC
You're saying that parliamentary committees can continue to sit during question period.
Is that right?
Bloc
Jean-Denis Garon Bloc Mirabel, QC
I just learned something. You taught me more just then than my seatmate has in 20 minutes.
Liberal
Conservative
Bloc
Jean-Denis Garon Bloc Mirabel, QC
I don't think we'll get a consensus. We don't want to mention anyone by name, so we won't.
Liberal
Conservative
Andrew Lawton Conservative Elgin—St. Thomas—London South, ON
In the interest of co-operation with my colleague from the Bloc, I'm happy to move a motion to suspend for question period if it would suit.
Liberal
The Chair Liberal Karina Gould
Is there a unanimous consent to suspend for question period?
There is no consent to do that, so you continue to have the floor, Mr. Lawton.
Conservative
Andrew Lawton Conservative Elgin—St. Thomas—London South, ON
That's wonderful. I appreciate that my colleagues wanted to hear how this ends.
The demographic assumptions that we have in this are based on immigration—“migration” as it's used there—birth rates and death rates. All of these things change. We know that they are all subject to policy mechanisms as well as global factors that governments can't control. I don't know how anyone can say that we already have this information when the report itself says that they're making it based on assumptions and not based on all possible scenarios, best case, worst case and so on. That's on the demography of it.
They're using as a starting point for the calculation in appendix B initial population as of July 1, 2024. These are estimates based on the 2021 census. Many people may know that there is currently a census process under way. It's formally concluded, but we know that people are still working to get access to—
Liberal
Conservative
Pat Kelly Conservative Calgary Crowfoot, AB
Yes, on the matter, while a standing order does not require a committee to suspend for question period, it is a well-established practice, not quite but almost without precedent in recent times, to suspend for question period. I know you asked if there was consensus. There was not, but I move that the committee suspend for question period.
Liberal
Ryan Turnbull Liberal Whitby, ON
You can't move something on a point of order. That's in the rules of Procedure and Practice. Unfortunately—
Conservative
Liberal
The Chair Liberal Karina Gould
Thank you, Mr. Turnbull, for reminding us of proper committee practice. Unfortunately, Mr. Kelly, you can't do that on a point of order.
Mr. Lawton, you continue to have the floor.