Thank you very much.
As a historian, my interest in the Arctic began when I was a university student, and it culminated in a master's thesis. From then on, my research spanned backward in time and forward to the present. The problem is that when I finished writing Polar Imperative, the world did not stop. Since then, the situation has changed so much that it will eventually require a revision of the last two chapters, so what I'm speaking about is what I didn't write in the book.
One such change was the government's release of a far more detailed Arctic policy in the summer of 2010. I think it's an excellent strategy, but two events have conspired against implementation in a timely manner. First is the melting of the sea ice at a rate far faster than expected. Second is the prolonged recession. Meanwhile, the issues have become blurred but increasingly complex, with the rapidly accelerating melting of the sea ice making predictions an exercise in futility.
Many Canadians are unaware of the degree of industrialization already taking place in the Arctic due to new mining developments and the associated ship traffic. Yet now more than ever, there is a need for consensus both within the Arctic countries and among them, with the full support of the global community.
At the outset I want to emphasize that Canada's sovereignty over the Arctic islands and mainland is secure and is not under threat, but sovereignty is more than a legal right. It involves responsibility for the inhabitants and their environment and for the safety of ship traffic. What may be at risk is Canada's ability to enforce its own laws and regulations in adjacent waters should increased ship traffic outpace investment in sufficient Coast Guard or patrol ships to respond to non-compliance with Canadian laws.
My second point relates to the success of the Arctic Council in bringing together the Arctic states to deal with common concerns, especially those affecting the environment. Sometimes we fail to recognize how much it has actually achieved against all odds. The circumpolar region is not a homogenous entity. The size and makeup of the population varies by country. The most populated region by far is Siberia, but it has proportionately fewer indigenous people. Second is Alaska. Greenland, with the smallest overall population, has the largest percentage of Inuit. Iceland has no aboriginal population.
The Arctic coastal states also differ culturally, economically, and politically, which derives from their own unique histories. The most advanced have had access to formal education over longer periods of time. For instance, Greenland may have the smallest population, but its capital has all the earmarks of a modern city. On the other hand, Iqaluit, the capital of Nunavut, is a relatively new community, where Inuit had no access to formal education until the late 1950s. This is in stark contrast to Murmansk, the largest city in the Russian Arctic. It was built as a naval base in World War I and now has a population of over 300,000. Tromsø had been home to the Sami people for centuries. It became a trade centre, with formal education provided, and, in 1842, a teachers college.
Geographic factors also had a major influence on the growth of Arctic communities. Take Alaska as an example. Juno, the territorial and now state capital, is a product of the Klondike gold rush. Currently it has a population of about 31,000. Anchorage, because of its deepwater harbour, grew rapidly and is now Alaska's largest city. Barrow, even with its proximity to the oil and gas developments at Prudhoe Bay and North Slope, has a population of less than 5,000. Again, it has no deep water.
My argument is that we cannot expect the Arctic Council to resolve issues that are specific to any one state. You can and should seek consensus and cooperation on issues affecting all countries, such as sustainable development, protection of the environment, safety in shipping in adjacent waters, coordination of search and rescue, oil spills, and governance of the Arctic Ocean.
We often refer to climate change as a global phenomenon, yet the circumpolar region is experiencing a dramatic increase in temperature brought about by increasing areas of open water and barren land, which in turn absorb more heat. There's an added catalyst to the warming trend that has been identified, and this, I believe, is more important. It's the melting of the permafrost, which is releasing large amounts of methane gas 20 times more toxic than greenhouse gases.
Methane gas has also been found leaking from the seabed in both the Beaufort Sea and Russian waters. As a result, some scientists believe that the warming trend in the Arctic has passed the tipping point—in other words, it's irreversible—and it may dramatically alter life elsewhere unless stabilized. The focus is on stabilization.
Along with the largest decrease, the composition of the polar ice cap is changing. There was a dramatic decrease in older ice with the first-year and second-year ice breaking up into small ice bands. I did supply pictures for a handout, but unfortunately there was no French translation on the titles. We'll negotiate that.
What does this mean for the future? Three years ago scientists predicted that by 2030, the Arctic Ocean would be relatively free of ice. Now that prediction is moving to 2025, and some say 2016. The route offers enormous savings from going through the Suez Canal or Panama Canal, or paying the transit fee to go over the Northern Sea Route.
The transit across the Arctic Ocean by China's conventional icebreaker last summer was likely a harbinger of what is to come: icebreakers creating a path for a convoy of bulk carriers. Whether this takes place 10, 20, or 30 years from now, I believe now is the time to consider how this traffic should be monitored and controlled to protect the environment.
We also tend to forget the route from Churchill, Manitoba to Murmansk, used by grain carriers to take wheat from the Prairies to Russia. Recently, port authority officials announced that next year, ice-reinforced ships would be transporting grain and possibly oil to China. Which will be their favourite route? We don't know yet.
In 2011, 34 ships sailed along the Northern Sea Route. Most were large tankers, bulk carriers, and even research vessels. Foreign ships using the route were from Norway, China, Germany, and even Dubai. These service the numerous resource industries along the Siberian coast, and there are many.
Russia has its own fleet of local cargo ships. They had a fleet of 135 in 2010, and 17 allegedly were added in 2011. I'm sorry, but trying to get accurate figures out of Russia is mission impossible.
That brings me to another concern, about the preparedness of Canada for this new industrialization and the lack of deep sea ports for emergency repairs or refuelling. The proposed port at Nanisivik has now been downgraded to little more than a gas station, according to Rob Huebert.
Nonetheless, the traffic through the Northwest Passage has increased, but these vessels are much different from what's going through the Northern Sea Route. According to the latest figures from NORDREG, the majority are sailboats, mega-yachts, or other small craft. They actually list them as adventurers. Last year they accounted for 20 of the 30 vessels that made the full transit of the Northwest Passage. They came from Sweden, Italy, France, the U.K., Finland, the Netherlands, Australia, New Zealand, Russia, and Canada. Most fail to report to NORDREG, and some rarely clear customs. Some, such as the Fortrus last summer, do not comply with Canadian laws.
Despite that, my focus is on the destination traffic, which will increase more rapidly as a result of the numerous mining projects scheduled to come on stream, and they are numerous. Most of the projects are very large, such as the Mary River ore mine. Owned by ArcelorMittal, the giant international steel company based in Luxembourg, that mine will cover approximately 17,000 hectares and will cost over $4 billion. It includes a 150 kilometre railway to a new port established in Steensby Inlet. With full production, and this is where it's important to me, the company expects to provide year-round shipping with ice-reinforced cargo ships to allow for 240 transits a year, which is almost equal to what the destination traffic was this year.
Fishing vessels also saw a major increase. So far, NORDREG, which is operated by the Canadian Coast Guard, has done an excellent job in monitoring ship traffic. The only weakness in the system is Canada's ability, and dare I say inability, to apprehend those that are non-compliant. Although the 2012 budget included $5.2 billion for the cost of new coast guard ships and helicopters, as well as for maintenance and upgrades, this will be spread over 11 years.
While it was not clear where these ships and helicopters will be deployed, Canada's Minister of National Defence, the Honourable Peter MacKay, indicated in an interview with CBC's Peter Mansbridge that the government is seriously considering arming the new vessels, a move that I believe is essential.
Meanwhile, discoveries are ongoing. Of course, the basic and most contentious item at the moment is the offshore drilling. If they're successful, Shell could provide a model for us in the future, but in the meantime, their shipping is increasing dramatically because of this. Shell alone had 24 ships last summer in the Beaufort and Chukchi seas.
As a final remark, so far with the Arctic Council, there's excellent cooperation between the Arctic countries, even joint military exercises. There is the UN law of the sea, which provides the means for peaceful resolution of seabed mining rights.
What about the Arctic Council and the role we can play as chair? Initially its success can be attributed to its share of protecting the environment. More recently, common interests have resulted in facilitating cooperation, such as on search and rescue and project cleanup. By assuming the chair in 2013, Canada has the opportunity to show leadership. To be effective, I believe it should be directed towards encouraging cooperation and action on common goals and not as a means of asserting our own values with culturally and economically diverse countries.
I'm going to close with a reminder that Arctic sovereignty is more than just a legal right; it also involves responsibility for the people and the environment and the safety of ships. The question lingers among scholars as to whether the Government of Canada is prepared to make the necessary investment in the Arctic to protect our sovereign rights, and will they have public support to do so. With southern Canadians so focused on the economy and events in the Middle East, the greatest threat to our Arctic sovereignty, even defective sovereignty, loss of authority in the Arctic waters, may be public apathy.
Thank you.