Foreign Affairs Committee on Jan. 25th, 2023

[Robert Cutler]

Thank you for your comments, sir.

First of all, that is not information from the intelligence services, but information propagated by mass media. I assure you that all the findings I am sharing with you are based on reports from the field, which I follow on a daily basis.

Actually, it is indeed a different version of the facts, in that it differs from that presented by the mass media.

I'll give you an example. From the beginning, we have heard a lot about 120,000 people in Stepanakert being affected by a shortage of food, and so on. I'll say to you bluntly, honourable gentleman, that this figure is out of date, because it goes back to before the war in 2020. According to public statements and Armenian authorities, the population of Stepanakert is only 30,000.

There is also talk of the interruption of gas supplies, for which the Azerbaijanis are allegedly guilty. This is an underground gas pipeline built during the occupation, controlled by the Armenian state. Armenians in Armenia supply this gas to Armenians in Nagorno-Karabakh. Azerbaijan is not in a position to cut off this gas supply. Last year, the same story was told. I remember, because I follow the events very closely, and I am sure that the same story will be told next year. In fact, the Azerbaijanis had to ask permission from the Armenian authorities and the Russian troops to intervene on the ground and do what was necessary to solve the problem. They were allowed to do so, and the problem disappeared.

So this is not private information coming from the intelligence services or secret services, sir. It is information propagated by the mass media. We have learned for some time to be skeptical in assessing all of this kind of information.

In conclusion, sir, I assure you that as a specialist I follow events closely on a day-to-day basis. You say that I am presenting a different version of the facts. Indeed, it differs from the so‑called reality that is portrayed by the media, but I assure you that it is the reality on the ground.

[Stéphane Bergeron, Bloc, Montarville, QC]

I wouldn't want to get into conspiracy theories by claiming that the mass media, as you call them, are trying to impose a scenario that does not correspond to reality. By whom would this be controlled, and why? I'm not sure, but I'm all the more surprised by your statement as it seems to suggest that states such as Canada, the United States and the European Union countries would base their public positions internationally solely on mass media information rather than on information provided to them by their intelligence services.

In any case, I would like to address Ms. Vartanyan now. The chair tells me that I have very little time left, but when we have a chance to come back to this, perhaps you can say a few words about it. The trilateral declaration or ceasefire agreement states that the Lachin corridor remains under the control of the Russian Federation's peacekeeping forces and that Azerbaijan undertakes to guarantee the safe movement of citizens, vehicles and goods in both directions. Yet all indications are that one-way traffic is now prohibited.

Is this a clear violation of the ceasefire agreement?

[The Chair, Liberal, Ali Ehsassi]

Ms. Vartanyan, I'm afraid you have only 20 to 30 seconds to respond because we're well over our allotted time.

[Olesya Vartanyan]

There is no need for me to spend more time on this. We just need to look at the ceasefire statement made in November 2020. Similar to this, there is also the OSCE statement about sending the fact-finding mission to Armenia last year, the one that Mr. Cutler questioned a while ago.

Thank you.

[The Chair, Liberal, Ali Ehsassi]

Thank you very much, Ms. Vartanyan.

We'll now go to MP Davies.

Mr. Davies, you have six minutes.

[Don Davies, NDP, Vancouver Kingsway, BC]

Thank you, Mr. Chair.

I'll be directing my questions to Ms. Vartanyan.

It appears to me, or I'm sensing, that there may be some different versions of what's going on regarding the facts on the ground.

Ms. Vartanyan, is it your information or testimony that there is or is not a blockade of the Lachin road right now?

[Olesya Vartanyan]

We clearly identify the current events as a blockade, similar to human rights organizations like Freedom House and Amnesty International. There are also others who identify those very events as a blockade.

[Don Davies, NDP, Vancouver Kingsway, BC]

Thank you.

I'd like follow up on my colleague Mr. Bergeron's question referring to the November 2020 ceasefire agreement. The agreement stipulates that the Lachin corridor “remains under the control of the peacekeeping contingent of the Russian Federation”, and commits Azerbaijan to guaranteeing the security of the “movement of citizens, vehicles and goods in both directions” along the Lachin corridor.

Is that happening right now? In your view, what steps is Azerbaijan taking or not taking to secure the movement of goods and people in both directions on the Lachin corridor?

[Olesya Vartanyan]

For over 40 days we have been seeing Azerbaijani civilians blocking the only road that connects Nagorno-Karabakh with Armenia. A number of facts identify that activists are connected to the Azerbaijani government. We have been doing our own research into that. It's clear that these activists have links to the government. Even more, we have been seeing that the Azerbaijani leadership, when speaking and voicing some of their statements, are repeating or using the same wording used by the activists.

That makes us believe that those in the international community who are calling on Azerbaijan to follow the agreement and guarantee security and free passage there are right in calling on Azerbaijan to do something around that.

[Don Davies, NDP, Vancouver Kingsway, BC]

On January 19, the European Parliament adopted a resolution that condemned the “inaction” of Russian peacekeepers in Nagorno-Karabakh, and called for their “replacement with OSCE international peacekeepers, under a UN mandate”. At the same time, that resolution criticized the Minsk Group for its “inactivity”.

Do you agree with the European Parliament's call for the replacement of Russian peacekeepers in Nagorno-Karabakh with OSCE peacekeepers under a UN mandate? If so, why?

[Olesya Vartanyan]

I understand that it's very important to proceed with discussions on the security and human rights of the ethnic Armenians living in Nagorno-Karabakh. According to the ceasefire statement made by Armenia, Azerbaijan and Russia, the Russian peacekeepers who are currently present in the Armenian-populated areas of Nagorno-Karabakh are responsible for observing the ceasefire. If the international community can help the sides come up with a peace accord that can guarantee or give some other security reassurance that the local ethnic Armenians can continue living there, then I'm sure I'm not the only one who would support that. Many would.

The very first step for this to happen, I believe, is still to look into the possibility of resuming the international presence on the ground. Right now we have only the ICRC, with a humanitarian mandate, present on the ground. At the Crisis Group, from the very beginning, right after we saw the ceasefire statement in 2020, we have been pushing for more involvement of the international community, including, for example, by the UN assigning a mission that could have access, could observe the situation on the ground and could report directly to the UN Security Council on a regular basis. I'm sure it would help us learn more and first-hand about the events without references to strange reports and Twitter posts that some people follow. That could help us understand what's happening and what can be done to start proceeding to finish this conflict.

[Don Davies, NDP, Vancouver Kingsway, BC]

I'll end with this. I think I speak for everybody when I say we would all like to see peace in the region for all sides. How do views on the prospects for peace differ, say, in Azerbaijan, Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh? What are the opportunities and hurdles to creating sustainable peace in the region?

[Olesya Vartanyan]

I think Armenia and Azerbaijan have been on the right track. They have been talking and they were discussing the very essence of very difficult topics. They should continue doing that. There should be no use of force and no situations like what we see in the Nagorno-Karabakh. Escalations prevent negotiations, and we should definitely see more contact taking place between Baku and Stepanakert to guarantee the future of ethnic Armenians in Nagorno-Karabakh.

[Don Davies, NDP, Vancouver Kingsway, BC]

I see Mr. Chair holding up the red square. Thank you.

[The Chair, Liberal, Ali Ehsassi]

Thank you very much.

We'll now move to the second round of questions. The first question goes to Mr. Hoback.

Mr. Hoback, you have five minutes, sir.

[Randy Hoback, Conservative, Prince Albert, SK]

Thank you, Chair.

I'd like to thank both witnesses for being here this afternoon.

Ms. Vartanyan, how do you see the Russian role in this in terms of being peacekeepers? Do you feel they have support from both sides? Do you feel they have the respect and ability to actually fulfill that type of mandate?

[Olesya Vartanyan]

With respect to the question of peacekeepers, they have a very limited contingent present on the ground. They are based mainly along the main roads, with various checkpoints. They do not have enough personnel, for example, to provide any kind of security to the local population. From the very beginning there were questions among the locals, but given their understanding that this was the only international presence that had been agreed to so far, they were okay with it and were very supportive.

The longer it went on, the more problems they saw. Azerbaijan has been making use of the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the fact that Russia would still prefer to focus only on its war, its illegal war, in Ukraine. What Azerbaijan has been doing—and this is what I described in my notes and previously in my presentation—is attacking Nagorno-Karabakh, doing so twice last year, and even the border. The latest escalation was, I would say, scaled up, because it lasted for two days and it was along 200 kilometres. You cannot really come up with a spontaneous attack like this without preplanned actions.

What I'm trying to say is that with Russian deterrence, some were ready to trust in the beginning, but that's definitely going away, with more questions on the ground. That's why I think it's really good that we are now having this conversation here, because these are the main questions right now. If it continues like this, who knows, maybe we'll see even more violence taking place in the region. We definitely don't want to face a situation in which we cannot respond to this new war. I'm afraid that such a war would be really devastating, with serious consequences.

[Randy Hoback, Conservative, Prince Albert, SK]

We see the Russian historical influence in the region for sure.

You made a comment that you've seen the Armenian and Azerbaijani officials talking among themselves and looking for a path forward. Do you see any other countries interfering with that path forward? Do you see the expats or other groups making it impossible for this to be accomplished?

[Olesya Vartanyan]

I don't think that is really the case. Armenia has been a sovereign country for over 30 years. Azerbaijan has a very determined and realistic approach to many things. I think the main problem is still the fact that they are aiming to finish the process as soon as possible. They're looking into very difficult topics. Unfortunately, they're doing it without mediation because the OSCE Minsk Group has fallen apart, although it still exists on paper.

In addition to that, there is such a profound lack of trust when one side is always afraid that the other side can make use of their words or their positions or whatever statement they make. That prevents the achievement of some of the results that many would like to see.

I have been working here for over 15 years and I witnessed the war in 2020. In every single village I went to in Armenia during that war, there was a funeral. This has affected people. They want peace, but that peace should bring stability, not more potential for a new war.

[Randy Hoback, Conservative, Prince Albert, SK]

How does the blockade fit into this equation? Is it part of that process? Is it a negotiating tool?

We've heard those surrounding it saying it's an environmental protest or it's based on mining issues, and I think a lot of people have discounted that. Is this a pawn being played as part of a bigger process?

[Olesya Vartanyan]

Look, if it were about the environment, there would be other ways to proceed.

Almost the same day the process started, when they blocked the road, the local authorities in Stepanakert tried proposing talks. Then they even proposed, “If you don't trust us, let's bring international experts and some international NGOs that can help us to look into your concerns and somehow resolve the problem.” However, we clearly see that there is no traction. There is no communication going on around that.

The current blockade is a continuation of all the problems we saw last year, with more escalation and more masculinity shown by Azerbaijan. There is a need to find a way to address it, especially with growing humanitarian problems on the ground.

[Randy Hoback, Conservative, Prince Albert, SK]

It looks as though the chair is giving me the red book, so I'll stop there.

Thank you for your time.

[The Chair, Liberal, Ali Ehsassi]

Thank you very much.

We'll now go to Mr. Oliphant.

Mr. Oliphant, you have five minutes.

[Rob Oliphant, Liberal, Don Valley West, ON]

Thank you to the witnesses.

I imagine you can tell that we are trying to unravel something here to get a clear picture of the microsituation within the macro context. The macro context is 100 years old. We understand that. There is a conflict that emerged in 1992 and that continues to this day, so it is very hard for us to sort out what is happening on the road at this time. We are hearing different versions of reality. I don't want to cast any aspersions on any of the realities we've heard, but I'm trying to understand what is happening.

If you don't have first-hand knowledge, can you point me now to someone who does? To both the witnesses, who should we be talking to in order to find out the situation?

Mr. Chair, could you ask the witnesses to respond, since they can speak only to you and not to me?

[The Chair, Liberal, Ali Ehsassi]

Mr. Cutler, could you go first, please?