Evidence of meeting #45 for Foreign Affairs and International Development in the 44th Parliament, 1st session. (The original version is on Parliament’s site, as are the minutes.) The winning word was region.

A video is available from Parliament.

On the agenda

MPs speaking

Also speaking

Robert Cutler  Former Senior Research Fellow, Institute of European, Russian and Eurasian Studies, Carleton University, As an Individual
Olesya Vartanyan  Senior South Caucacus Analyst, International Crisis Group
Anar Jahangirli  Chairman of the Board, Network of Azerbaijani Canadians
Christopher Waters  Professor, Faculty of Law, University of Windsor, As an Individual

2:50 p.m.

Former Senior Research Fellow, Institute of European, Russian and Eurasian Studies, Carleton University, As an Individual

Robert Cutler

Yes. I believe there are open-source satellite photographs that are available, without interpretation, to be inspected. There are all kinds of reports from the ground, given that this is the year 2023. It's necessary, of course, to evaluate these reports very carefully, but with practice it's possible to do so. It is not necessary to have a conflictionist view of things in order to suggest that skepticism is always a good thing when one is evaluating information provided by people who have an interest in the information being believed or disbelieved.

I can answer only from my personal and individual experience. I was trained in the last decade of the Cold War. I cut my teeth on reading the Soviet press. It's necessary to evaluate even testimony that looks like it's first-hand and that says it's first-hand. It's always necessary to ask a question about the motives of the people providing it and to ask what the other angles are. It's like a jigsaw puzzle, and you have to put all the pieces together to equilibrate, to balance, what's more likely and what's less likely.

I'm not certain, sir, that there's a single source or even a small handful of sources that one can have recourse to with confidence to say that these are the ones we have.... With all due respect to the International Crisis Group, which I highly respect, they are one of a large number of analytical—

Rob Oliphant Liberal Don Valley West, ON

Thank you. I'm just going to cut it off there because I have just one more minute.

I want to move on now to a different point. If truth is the first casualty of war—which I think we are hearing today—and somewhere truth is in there, it would seem to me that we have to back up and solve what was at one point a frozen conflict and what are now skirmishes from time to time and a blockade on a road, which may or may not be causing a humanitarian crisis.

What are your suggestions for the way ahead? Do we put emphasis on the Minsk process? Do we look at an alternative process? Is it at the EU or is it another UN process? What would you recommend?

Ms. Vartanyan, please go first.

2:55 p.m.

Senior South Caucacus Analyst, International Crisis Group

Olesya Vartanyan

Thank you so much.

I think two things should be done around the blockade. First, I think Canada should continue exercising pressure on Baku so that we can start seeing at least more movement going on along that road.

I speak to the people on the ground on a regular basis, and I understand that it's getting worse and worse. The contacts, unfortunately, are non-existent. These are the ones that could, for example, resolve some of the problems with the lack of gas supply or shortages of electricity. The lines are in the Azerbaijani-controlled areas.

The second thing is very important, and that is to call for talks. In that sense, the idea that the European Union and the U.S. have to create a direct channel between Baku and Stepanakert is a great idea. Belief in that could satisfy all sides.

It's very important to continue supporting the European Union's efforts to bring the leaders together. Also, as I said, I think Canada should be supporting the European mission to the Armenian-Azerbaijani border.

The Chair Liberal Ali Ehsassi

We will now go to Mr. Bergeron.

Mr. Bergeron, you have two and a half minutes.

2:55 p.m.

Former Senior Research Fellow, Institute of European, Russian and Eurasian Studies, Carleton University, As an Individual

Robert Cutler

Excuse me, sir. Was the question not directed to me?

The Chair Liberal Ali Ehsassi

Mr. Cutler, it was directed, but it went completely over time. I apologize for that. We'll have to go to the next member.

Mr. Bergeron, you have two and a half minutes.

Stéphane Bergeron Bloc Montarville, QC

Thank you, Mr. Chair.

As an active participant in the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe, I have the opportunity to hear what Armenia and Azerbaijan have to say on this conflict, which has been going on between these two countries for many decades, as Mr. Oliphant pointed out.

Of course, we know that the Lachin corridor issue is directly related to this conflict. Zaur Shiriyev, an analyst with the International Crisis Group, told Eurasianet on December 15 that if Baku engaged in good faith with the local Armenians, it could reduce the risks to the peace agreement.

Could you tell us, very quickly, whether you feel a peace agreement is likely? Is peace possible or should we resign ourselves to this permanent state of war between the two countries?

My question is for both witnesses, equally.

2:55 p.m.

Former Senior Research Fellow, Institute of European, Russian and Eurasian Studies, Carleton University, As an Individual

Robert Cutler

Thank you.

May I have the floor, Mr. Chair?

The Chair Liberal Ali Ehsassi

I did, Mr. Cutler.

2:55 p.m.

Former Senior Research Fellow, Institute of European, Russian and Eurasian Studies, Carleton University, As an Individual

Robert Cutler

Thank you.

Sir, one can only agree regarding engagement between Baku and the Armenians of Nagorno-Karabakh. This took place in the summer and fall.

The other expert appearing before you today knows as I do that a new leader has been parachuted into Armenian Nagorno-Karabakh from Moscow. His name is Ruben Vardanyan and he is not from Nagorno-Karabakh. I am sure that there is no relationship between him and Ms. Vartanyan. I am not going to tell you everything about him, but let's say that, as soon as he arrived, Armenian policy became harder. And yet a clear improvement had been underway.

I take this opportunity to express my agreement on the need to put pressure on Baku. As I said at the outset, this requires a Canadian embassy in Baku, so that we can let that government know what Canadians think. Canada can help by increasing awareness regarding the mines issue, and by furthering the implementation of the 2020 agreement.

Thank you.

Stéphane Bergeron Bloc Montarville, QC

Is it my turn again?

3 p.m.

Liberal

The Chair Liberal Ali Ehsassi

No, because you've gone over your time, and this happened in the previous round as well, Mr. Bergeron.

We'll now go to Mr. Davies for the final question.

You have two and a half minutes, sir.

Don Davies NDP Vancouver Kingsway, BC

Thank you, Mr. Chair.

Madam Vartanyan, I think in addition to political solutions, we must also pay attention to legal structures if we are truly building a rule of law-based international system. To that end, I note that on December 21, the European Court of Human Rights indicated to the Government of Azerbaijan that it should “take all measures that are within their jurisdiction to ensure safe passage through the ‘Lachin Corridor’ of seriously ill persons in need of medical treatment in Armenia and others who were stranded on the road without shelter or means of subsistence.” At the same time, the court noted that “the extent to which the Government of Azerbaijan was currently in control of the situation in the ‘Lachin Corridor’’ was disputed and unclear”.

What is your sense of that? Why is Azerbaijan unable to control the situation in the corridor, or is it in control of the situation in the corridor?

3 p.m.

Senior South Caucacus Analyst, International Crisis Group

Olesya Vartanyan

As I think I said before, we see that Azerbaijan is in control over protesters who are present on that road. There are other signs that the protesters coordinate closely with Azerbaijani governmental structures. Even more, we see the Azerbaijani leadership speaking and using the same wording used by the protesters.

Don Davies NDP Vancouver Kingsway, BC

Thanks.

I guess I will end this on the humanitarian situation. It appears challenging to get information about that situation.

Can you give us a basic picture of what the current state of the humanitarian situation facing the people in the region is right now?

3 p.m.

Senior South Caucacus Analyst, International Crisis Group

Olesya Vartanyan

The local people are experiencing shortages of food. There have been no vegetables or fruits for weeks now. There are other problems with medical supplies. If you go to the local drugstore, you cannot even get elementary painkillers, not to mention drugs that are needed for those who have cancer, for example, or diabetes.

In addition, almost half of Nagorno-Karabakh's population lives in Stepanakert. You can see very long lines of people in front of the stores who are trying to buy at least eggs or some cheese brought from the villages because they don't have any other food coming to Nagorno-Karabakh because of the blocked road.

In addition to that, the locals on the ground have started experiencing problems with heating. The gas comes and goes. Again, the gas pipeline and electric lines are on the Azerbaijani-controlled territory. Because of that, people have a shortage of basic food. They have no medical supplies, and in addition to that they are just freezing. This is winter and these are mountains.

3 p.m.

Liberal

The Chair Liberal Ali Ehsassi

Thank you very much.

At this juncture, allow me to thank Mr. Cutler and Ms. Vartanyan. Thank you for your time, for your perspective and for your testimony. It was very helpful, and I know I speak on behalf of every member of this committee when I say that we hope to see an immediate peaceful resolution to this conflict.

We will now suspend for five minutes.

The Chair Liberal Ali Ehsassi

We will now resume the meeting for the fourth hour of our hearing into the current situation between Azerbaijan and Armenia with specific reference to the Lachin road.

We are grateful to have with us here today Mr. Anar Jahangirli, who is the chairman of the board of the Network of Azerbaijani Canadians. We also have Professor Christopher Waters of the University of Windsor.

You will each be provided five minutes for your opening remarks. That will be followed by questions from the members. When you have only 30 seconds remaining, I will put up this sign, so please do wrap it up. That applies to both your opening remarks and the questions that are put to you by the members.

Mr. Jahangirli, you have five minutes. The floor is yours.

Anar Jahangirli Chairman of the Board, Network of Azerbaijani Canadians

Good afternoon.

Thank you, Chair and committee members, for inviting me to testify. I represent the Network of Azerbaijani Canadians, a grassroots community organization advocating for Canadian Azerbaijanis.

Earlier today, the committee heard from four Armenian witnesses and an expert who happens to be Armenian. I think it's very symbolic that the other side needs to present its point of view in five iterations. The Azerbaijani point of view will deliver the important facts that are missing from an inflamed narrative. One witness shall suffice to deliver the truth.

I've come here to speak at a very difficult time for the South Caucasus region, at a time when Russia's Vladimir Putin is trying to engineer yet another crisis and crack the fragile peace process between Azerbaijan and Armenia. It is therefore very important to pause and look at what is not being said, so that we can put the situation in the context of what is actually taking place in the region.

I'll talk about three important timelines.

The first period covers the time when Armenia encouraged irredentism and ethnic separatism in Azerbaijan in the last years of the Soviet Union. Right after the collapse of the U.S.S.R., the conflict turned into a full-scale war. The single mass atrocity of this conflict, the Khojaly massacre, was committed against the Azerbaijani civilians in the heart of Karabakh, where 613 people were killed overnight by Armenian troops.

The war stopped in 1994, leaving about 15% of Azerbaijan's internationally recognized territories under Armenian occupation and 700,000 indigenous Azerbaijani people of Karabakh having been ethnically cleansed from Karabakh and forced to live in IDP camps across the country. Speaking of refugees who were truly forgotten by the world, add to those another 200,000 Azerbaijanis from Armenia proper.

Since then, for 26 years, there have been negotiations, or rather an imitation of negotiations, with Armenia taking no steps to withdraw from the illegally occupied Azerbaijani territories.

The second timeline of events to look at began when the war erupted in September 2020 and saw Azerbaijan liberate most of its territories that were illegally occupied by Armenia. On November 9, after Azerbaijan took control of key terrain and the historic Azerbaijani town of Shusha, Armenia agreed to sign a statement under which it provided a schedule to withdraw its troops from the rest of the occupied Azerbaijani territories. Unfortunately, some clauses of said agreement remain unimplemented by Armenia. I would be happy to elaborate on those if time permits. Based on the mentioned statement, a Russian peacekeeping contingent will be deployed in the region until November 2025.

Since then, the parties have been engaged in peace talks. Last October in Prague, Azerbaijan and Armenia signed a declaration confirming their commitment to recognizing each other's territorial integrity and sovereignty. It was at that point that Putin's regime parachuted an Armenian-Russian oligarch, Ruben Vardanyan, into Karabakh to destabilize the situation and derail the peace process.

This brings me to my final point, where we are now.

This individual, who is, by the way, sanctioned by Ukraine, quickly took power as the so-called “state minister” within Azerbaijan's Karabakh region, where the Russian peacekeeping contingent is temporarily deployed. Since December 12, Azerbaijani activists have been demonstrating on the road that the Armenians in Karabakh have been using to connect with Armenia proper. The demonstrations are against the illegal exploitation of gold and copper mines in the Karabakh region of Azerbaijan—not against civilians or any humanitarian transport.

Currently Azerbaijani activists are controlling the road to prevent the transfer of illegally extracted gold resources and weapons. I reiterate that no humanitarian access is being blocked. This is evident given the many vehicles that continue to pass through daily. More than 1,000 vehicles and trucks have passed over the road in the past month and a half. This is the latest information.

While the current situation on the Lachin road is not at all where Azerbaijanis and Armenians should be, we question the motives of those amplifying easily refutable narratives put forward by a Russia-backed oligarch. We question the motives of those who have not once spoken in favour of the peace process and the signing of a peace agreement, but who have instead been regurgitating hateful pro-war propaganda. Our Azerbaijani Canadian community stands firmly against Russia's interference in the South Caucasus region, so that Azerbaijan and Armenia can continue peace negotiations leading to a peace treaty.

Therefore, we urge our Canadian government to question whether the narratives it amplifies are, first, fact-based or manipulated and, second, whether they will lead to a lasting peace in the region or aid the region in returning to Russia's sphere of influence.

Thank you very much.

The Chair Liberal Ali Ehsassi

Thank you very much, Mr. Jahangirli.

Professor Waters, the floor is yours for five minutes.

Dr. Christopher Waters Professor, Faculty of Law, University of Windsor, As an Individual

Good afternoon, Mr. Chair, and many thanks for the invitation to appear before the committee.

I have been studying the South Caucasus for 25 years, and that includes multiple trips to the region in my capacity as a law professor. The fact that Canada is now engaged with the South Caucasus in a way that it wasn't for much of those two and a half decades is partly thanks to this committee, in particular for its hearings held two years ago on the weapons transfers to Turkey and the subsequent ramifications of that for the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, so thank you.

I have three points.

The first is that the blockade of the Lachin corridor represents a current and pressing humanitarian crisis. Secondly, I would argue that Azerbaijan bears state responsibility for that. Third, I would submit that Canada has good reasons to take a stance.

First of all, on the Lachin corridor as a lifeline, on November 9, 2020, as you know, the Russian-backed ceasefire agreement included, in part, a provision that, “The Republic of Azerbaijan shall guarantee the safety of citizens, vehicles and goods travelling along the Lachin corridor in both directions.”

Since 2020, the corridor has been a lifeline for the roughly 120,000 residents of Nagorno-Karabakh. Its blockade by Azerbaijan has already had dire consequences, and they are poised to worsen.

These actions have involved the cutting off of electricity and gas; food shortages, including rationing of staples such as wheat and buckwheat, along with vegetables and other supplies; shortages of medical supplies and an inability to transfer critically ill Armenian patients, including children, to hospitals in Armenia proper; and cutting off some children stranded in Armenia from returning to their families in Nagorno-Karabakh.

These actions represent not only breaches of the ceasefire agreement as well as international humanitarian and international human rights law. They are part of a broader effort to ethnically cleanse Nagorno-Karabakh. They come in a context of widespread Armenia-phobic statements propagated by the regime and the destruction of cultural property. It should worry us that the Lemkin Institute for Genocide Prevention has issued red flag alerts for genocide in the region.

We can recognize that both sides have legitimate concerns about how the ceasefire has been implemented. I absolutely recognize that both sides have legitimate concerns in this regard, and we should press both sides to make genuine efforts to compromise to reach a lasting peace in the region, but there's no scope for false balance or “bothsidesism” over this particular issue of the Lachin corridor. The blockade is having immediate and dire humanitarian consequences for civilians. They are essentially being held hostage.

Let's be frank. Azerbaijan is an authoritarian state and claims that this blockade is a result of spontaneous Azerbaijani citizen activism are simply not credible, but don't take my word for it. Human Rights Watch, in its report on Azerbaijan, says, “The space for independent activism, critical journalism, and opposition political activity has been virtually extinguished”.

Power in Azerbaijan is in the hands of President Ilham Aliyev, a dynastic successor to his father, who has served as president since 2003. Even assuming that these eco-activists are private Azerbaijani individuals spontaneously blocking the road, Azerbaijan bears state responsibility. A state may be responsible for the effects of the conduct of private parties if it does not take the necessary measures to prevent those effects.

Let me give an analogy. A state is not responsible for individual citizens taking over an embassy, such has happened in Tehran, but it is responsible if it fails to take measures to prevent that or to act appropriately afterwards to protect the embassy or regain control over it. Russia also bears state responsibility here, and perhaps that will come up in questions.

My third point is that Canada has good reason to be involved. As you know, 2020 marked the 30th anniversary of diplomatic relations between Canada and Armenia. The celebrations were muted because of the ongoing violence, not because relations between Canada and Armenia are poor. On the contrary, relations between the two countries have never been stronger.

People-to-people links mediated through a sizable and engaged Armenian diaspora in Canada are strong. Politically, Armenia is on a reformist—albeit fraught—track following its 2018 Velvet Revolution. Geopolitically, Armenia is inching away from the Russian orbit and, diplomatically, Canada's recent announcement that it would open an embassy in Armenia, its first in the South Caucasus, was a very welcome step, as were the other recommendations from Monsieur Dion to, “Make Armenia a priority as a fragile democracy”.

Monsieur Dion's report was commissioned before the full-scale invasion of Ukraine by Russia. In his mandate letter, he was specifically told not to look at the geopolitics of Canadian support for Armenia. Since that time, however, Canada's support has taken on greater geopolitical significance. Simply put, Canada's support for fragile democracies in the former Soviet areas matters more.

In conclusion, in my view, Canada, while continuing to press both sides to come to a durable peace, should condemn Azerbaijani actions over the specific issue of the Lachin corridor in words similar to its allies, the European Union and the Council of Europe, and use all diplomatic and economic tools to ensure that the humanitarian corridor is opened and remains open.

Thank you.

The Chair Liberal Ali Ehsassi

Thank you, Professor Waters.

We now turn to the members for their questions.

The first member is MP Hoback for six minutes.

3:20 p.m.

Conservative

Randy Hoback Conservative Prince Albert, SK

Thank you, Chair.

I appreciate both witnesses being here this afternoon to give us their perspectives on the situation.

Mr. Jahangirli, you talked about the issue of gold and copper mines being front and centre, and about the blockade being there because of environmental concerns—or not necessarily environmental concerns but concerns that gold and copper are being mined illegally. Can you expand on that?

3:20 p.m.

Chairman of the Board, Network of Azerbaijani Canadians

Anar Jahangirli

Absolutely. The Azerbaijani side has on numerous occasions in the past expressed its grievance that mineral resources, gold and copper resources—copper resources within the Karabakh region—are being exploited illegally. Any company or any entity that seeks to conduct a mining activity within the internationally recognized territories of Azerbaijan has to obtain a proper licence. That is as it is in any normal country—Canada, Europe or anywhere in the world. Unfortunately, for 26 years until 2020, that area, three times larger than it is now, where Armenians of Karabakh currently live, was under the occupation of the Republic of Armenia. Azerbaijan could not access those territories to ensure that the licensing was in place.

After the war in 2020, Azerbaijan had its territorial integrity established and recognized as per the statements signed on November 9 and 10 in 2020. Since then, Azerbaijan has been putting forward its concerns that any mining activity that is happening there must stop immediately.

More than that, the mining activity that has happened in the region has destroyed up to maybe 100 hectares of forestry in the region. This is a huge concern for Azerbaijan as well. This should not happen—

3:25 p.m.

Conservative

Randy Hoback Conservative Prince Albert, SK

I apologize. I have only six minutes.

I guess the question I have then is this: If you have concerns about that specific issue, why would you take it out on the entire population? Why would the blockades block everybody? Why wouldn't you just blockade the vehicles that would be going in and out of the mine, for example, and address those?

You made the comment that 1,000 vehicles passed through, but we also heard comments that people were allowed to leave but not come back. Do you have statistics showing the number of vehicles leaving and the number of vehicles coming back? How many of those 1,000 are actually going into the region and how many are leaving the region for good?