Evidence of meeting #74 for Foreign Affairs and International Development in the 44th Parliament, 1st session. (The original version is on Parliament’s site, as are the minutes.) The winning word was regime.
A video is available from Parliament.
September 27th, 2023 / 5:05 p.m.
Liberal
Sameer Zuberi Liberal Pierrefonds—Dollard, QC
I'd like to thank all the witnesses for being here.
I'd like to start with Professor Charron.
In your brief, you mentioned that an annual review of sanctions would be a good thing. Can you elaborate a little bit about what the value of an annual review would be, in your estimation?
Professor, University of Manitoba, As an Individual
Thanks.
As Sophie mentioned, the whole effectiveness of sanctions requires the sender to be reactive to events on the ground. However, Canada has a “fire and forget” approach. We put a name on the list, and then that's the last we hear from it. We know that Canada, for example, took three years to lift sanctions from Côte d'Ivoire and Liberia after the UN Security Council had. We spend a lot of time up front on whom to target, but we don't spend a lot of time on looking at what the effect is on these targets and whether we should be maybe adjusting with allies and in response to events on the ground.
Liberal
Sameer Zuberi Liberal Pierrefonds—Dollard, QC
That's perfect.
Don't you think an annual review would be a little bit onerous, though? Wouldn't you suggest maybe every two years or something along those lines? That's number one.
Number two is an open question, without leading you anywhere: Do you have any thoughts with respect to some sort of sunset clause or something along those lines, or a review mechanism that would require renewal?
Do you have any thoughts, Professor Charron, or anybody else?
Professor, University of Manitoba, As an Individual
It's not onerous, because the information is readily available. It requires somebody to put it together. When you think about the formatting, the first time is going to be difficult. However, we have legions of really smart graduate students. You could throw them at this, and they would have this licked easily. I think it is possible, but we have to determine the format that we need.
With regard to the sunset clauses, it depends. On the one hand, it then tells targets that they just have to sit it out and they'll be fine. They'll make sure that they do their bad behaviour after the sunset clause has ended the sanction.
What it really requires is regular reviews, with all of the players and with allies, to be responsive to events on the ground.
Liberal
Sameer Zuberi Liberal Pierrefonds—Dollard, QC
Ms. Marineau, you commented on the negative and unintended consequences of sanctions on your social media. Would you like to tell us more?
PhD Candidate, International Relations, As an Individual
Could you repeat the question in English, please?
Liberal
Sameer Zuberi Liberal Pierrefonds—Dollard, QC
On your social media, you mentioned something along the lines of unintended consequences and negative consequences with respect to sanctions. Would you like to elaborate a bit on this?
PhD Candidate, International Relations, As an Individual
Yes. Let me know if I have understood the question correctly.
When Canada imposes sanctions, it necessarily stops or tries to limit trade between it and a foreign country. To stop trade, on the one hand, trade must be happening. On the other hand, the country in question, in this case Russia, must suffer the consequences. However, Canada will also suffer.
An effective sanction will certainly have an impact on the sanctioned state, but the sanctioning state may also suffer the backlash. Relations are bilateral, sometimes multilateral. Canada and any of its allies must forgo trade with Russia. Whether we're talking about imports or exports, we're depriving ourselves of goods or revenue. Of course, if sanctions imposed by Canada or its allies are at all effective, the Canadian economy will feel the impact of them.
Does that answer your question?
Liberal
Sameer Zuberi Liberal Pierrefonds—Dollard, QC
Yes, thank you.
To all the witnesses, I'd like to ask what the value is in harmonizing with other countries or working in coordination with other countries with respect to our sanctions.
Would any of you like to elaborate on that point?
Liberal
PhD Candidate, International Relations, As an Individual
All right.
A look at past sanctions regimes shows that in the absence of international cohesion, the country targeted by sanctions can quickly find other customers to replace the sanctioning state. Sanctions imposed by an international organization like the European Union, for example, with the full force of its partners, are far more effective than sanctions imposed by a single country. This brings to mind the U.S. embargo against Cuba, where Cuba was able to replace the Americans with other customers. So, the more customers—
Liberal
The Chair Liberal Ali Ehsassi
Thank you, Madame Marineau.
Mr. Perron, you have the floor for five minutes.
Bloc
Yves Perron Bloc Berthier—Maskinongé, QC
Thank you very much, Mr. Chair.
First, I'd like to think the witnesses for taking the time to join us today.
Ms. Marineau, you did a good job explaining the factors used to assess how effective measures are. It's just a shame that they are not being applied.
Almost a year ago in 2022, $76 million in funding was announced to establish a specialized sanctions bureau, but no bureau has been established as of yet.
Do you feel that this delay is to be expected, given the structure to be established, or do you feel that it's laxity and they should be moving faster?
If I understood what you said correctly, you also said that this bureau would have to report regularly to the House. Could you clarify that, please?
PhD Candidate, International Relations, As an Individual
I think it was my colleague who brought that up, not me.
Bloc
Yves Perron Bloc Berthier—Maskinongé, QC
Based on your criteria, Ms. Marineau, do you feel it's acceptable that we currently have no structure for sanctions, despite last year's announcement? Do you feel it's urgent that we establish the bureau? Could the committee recommend that to the government once it completes this study, for example?
PhD Candidate, International Relations, As an Individual
I feel that would be a good recommendation for the committee to make.
If we impose sanctions, we certainly need to have ways to test their efficacy. The efficacy of sanctions can't be calculated in a matter of days or months. The current sanctions regime was introduced in 2014 and it's been strengthened several times. Among other things, new and much stricter measures were introduced in 2022. If everything goes as planned, we should have some results for the years 2014 to 2020 or 2021. Surely we will soon have the data needed to gauge the efficacy of the sanctions and measures put in place last year.
Bloc
Yves Perron Bloc Berthier—Maskinongé, QC
Thank you very much.
Ms. Charron, I believe you mentioned that the bureau would have to report regularly to the House. I assume you agree that a year is long enough, and that the bureau should be established immediately, right?
Professor, University of Manitoba, As an Individual
I'm sorry; is that directed to me?
Professor, University of Manitoba, As an Individual
I don't think we can overestimate how difficult it is to pull people together to get them trained. We don't have a culture of sanctions certification. The U.S., the U.K. and the EU have sanctions certification. People go on regular courses. It's recognized worldwide.
Canada is a day as part of that certification, and too few of us take that certification. One of the problems is going to be finding people to hire and then bringing them up to speed, because this is a very complicated topic.
Bloc
Yves Perron Bloc Berthier—Maskinongé, QC
Thank you very much.
I will come back to you, Ms. Marineau.
Based on your criteria for evaluating the efficacy of sanctions, do you feel that, generally speaking, the sanctions Canada imposed on Russia are currently effective?
PhD Candidate, International Relations, As an Individual
As I said in my opening remarks, sanctions don't stop wars. Historically, if we go by the analysis of recent sanctions regimes in the 20th century, we shouldn't expect the sanctions against Russia to end the war. However, we can expect that the economic issues they cause for Russia will be severe enough that Russia will want to come to the table and get out of this war.
As to whether the sanctions are effective, we've clearly seen that they have had an impact, especially on the military industrial complex. Right now in Ukraine, Russia is being forced to use Soviet weapons. It has to blow the dust off weapons and old tanks from the USSR era. The same thing goes for its air force. So, are the sanctions working? Yes. They are depriving Russia of goods and the parts it needs to expand its military industrial complex.
Bloc
Yves Perron Bloc Berthier—Maskinongé, QC
Thank you very much.
I'm glad to hear you say that the sanctions are working, but international cohesion is also needed. Several countries need to impose sanctions at the same time, because Canada's economic weight alone wouldn't be enough. That's what I understand from your speech.
Speaking of international cohesion, in your research you talk about black knights, namely countries that allow other countries to sidestep the sanctions imposed on them.
Who are the black knights right now? What could Canada do to stop them?