Evidence of meeting #15 for Government Operations and Estimates in the 43rd Parliament, 1st session. (The original version is on Parliament’s site, as are the minutes.) The winning word was measures.
A recording is available from Parliament.
Conservative
Conservative
Kelly McCauley Conservative Edmonton West, AB
We talked about the debt to GDP and the change from 1996, but, of course, it's very different. The provinces are in bad shape. Do you have any thoughts on that, or on the municipalities, and how we're going to deal with that?
Parliamentary Budget Officer, Office of the Parliamentary Budget Officer
It will be a difficult situation, fiscally speaking, for many provinces and territories—
Parliamentary Budget Officer, Office of the Parliamentary Budget Officer
Okay. I can provide a written answer to that question, Mr. Chair.
Conservative
Liberal
Patrick Weiler Liberal West Vancouver—Sunshine Coast—Sea to Sky Country, BC
Thank you, Mr. Chair.
Thank you, Mr. Giroux and Mr. Mahabir, for joining our committee today.
I want to pick up on a question that one of my fellow committee members asked earlier, and that was on the distinction between the CERB numbers and the employment figures. I'm wondering, given that the qualification for the CERB has been changed so that now you can earn up to $1,000 and still qualify for the CERB, if that might make up for some of the distinction there.
Parliamentary Budget Officer, Office of the Parliamentary Budget Officer
I'll ask Mark if he can answer your question.
Mark Mahabir Director of Policy, Costing, Office of the Parliamentary Budget Officer
That could make up some of the difference. Also, the numbers reported by CRA are the gross amounts. For some individuals, there will be overpayments, and so the amount that is reported and the number that is reported could reflect that people will have to pay back a certain amount in the future.
Liberal
Patrick Weiler Liberal West Vancouver—Sunshine Coast—Sea to Sky Country, BC
Great. Thank you.
Has the PBO costed out how much it would cost to extend the CERB for a full year, or otherwise how much it would cost to implement a universal basic income?
Parliamentary Budget Officer, Office of the Parliamentary Budget Officer
We have not costed an extension of the CERB. We have done work in the past. Before my appointment, the office did a cost estimate of implementing a universal basic income, UBI. We've also been asked by two parliamentarians to update these costs, and we will be providing an updated cost estimate to the 2018 cost estimate of the UBI by the end of June. So, in the next four or four and a half weeks, we should be able to release a revised cost estimate of implementing a universal basic income.
Liberal
Patrick Weiler Liberal West Vancouver—Sunshine Coast—Sea to Sky Country, BC
Thank you.
Given the amount of spending to date—and you mentioned $252 billion or something in that range—how is the government going to be able to finance these benefits, and what interest rates are government bills and bonds currently sold at?
Parliamentary Budget Officer, Office of the Parliamentary Budget Officer
The government, currently being in a deficit position, will have to borrow to finance additional benefits should it wish to extend benefits. Current borrowing rates are around 1%-1.2%, depending on the maturities that you're looking at. Short term is slightly lower, and long term is slightly higher, but the interest rates are very low compared to historical rates.
Liberal
Patrick Weiler Liberal West Vancouver—Sunshine Coast—Sea to Sky Country, BC
In that sense, what would be the annual cost of servicing a debt of that magnitude?
Parliamentary Budget Officer, Office of the Parliamentary Budget Officer
Servicing the debt, we estimate currently, would be $23.3 billion on a debt that will be upwards of $950 billion. That's relatively low compared to historical levels, but it's due to the very low interest rates.
Liberal
Patrick Weiler Liberal West Vancouver—Sunshine Coast—Sea to Sky Country, BC
Thank you.
Given that the unique nature of the economic impact of the pandemic may require new ways of stimulating the economy, what fiscal measures would you suggest the federal government consider?
Parliamentary Budget Officer, Office of the Parliamentary Budget Officer
That's a very good question, but a question best answered by ministers. Fiscal measures could include spending on various programs as well as tax measures. There's a long list of potential measures, and I'm sure that ministers and other stakeholders will have lots of good ideas.
Conservative
The Chair Conservative Tom Lukiwski
Thank you very much.
We'll now go to Mr. McCauley once again, for four minutes, please.
Conservative
Kelly McCauley Conservative Edmonton West, AB
Conservative MPs have asked the PBO to update the report on infrastructure. The previous report on infrastructure showed that 40% of the funds were lapsed and unused, and that the infrastructure plan did not actually exist as a plan. The Minister of Infrastructure said that 53,000 projects had been supported with the funds so far. I assume the department can give you the list of these 53,000 projects. Do you have that list?
Parliamentary Budget Officer, Office of the Parliamentary Budget Officer
That's a very reasonable assumption, once you hear that there is such a list. We've asked the department and we have been able to find information for 33,000 of these projects. We have not been able to see a list that includes all these 52,000 or 53,000 projects, only 33,000 of them.
Conservative
Parliamentary Budget Officer, Office of the Parliamentary Budget Officer
If I knew, sir, I would have a different answer to that question. I don't know, sadly.
Conservative
Kelly McCauley Conservative Edmonton West, AB
I imagine it would be a reasonable question, but obviously it's not reasonable with the ministry. Have you received all the information you've asked for?
Parliamentary Budget Officer, Office of the Parliamentary Budget Officer
Do you mean with respect to infrastructure?