Evidence of meeting #65 for Procedure and House Affairs in the 44th Parliament, 1st session. (The original version is on Parliament’s site, as are the minutes.) The winning word was information.
A video is available from Parliament.
Partner, Research, One Persuasion Inc., As an Individual
That's no problem.
Liberal
The Chair Liberal Bardish Chagger
Thank you so much.
We'll go for about three minutes to Mr. Calkins followed by Mr. Fergus before we close.
Go ahead, Mr. Calkins.
Conservative
Blaine Calkins Conservative Red Deer—Lacombe, AB
Thank you, Madam Chair.
I want to ask Mr. DeLorey a question through you.
Earlier on, it was intimated that the Conservatives had somehow alleged that the overall outcome of the last election was somehow influenced by foreign interference, yet Mr. O'Toole only claimed there were about eight or nine ridings, I believe, that he thought might have been impacted by foreign interference. Is that not true?
Former National Campaign Manager, Conservative Party of Canada, As an Individual
That's correct. There was never an inference that we ever heard anything different.
Conservative
Blaine Calkins Conservative Red Deer—Lacombe, AB
On the number of seats that the Liberal Party won, if you subtract eight or nine and add those seats elsewhere, that's really difficult math, or is it fairly simple math?
Former National Campaign Manager, Conservative Party of Canada, As an Individual
It seems pretty simple.
Conservative
Blaine Calkins Conservative Red Deer—Lacombe, AB
Yes, it seems pretty simple to me.
I'll go back to a quote. You talked about actual versus expected results. I'm not sure if you had a chance to review previous testimony by people at the committee, but our former ambassador to China, David Mulroney, said, “I think the bar is way too low when you say that it has to affect the outcome of the election. Affecting one constituency disenfranchises Canadians and is a big win for China. Interfering in 11 is a major, major aggressive step by China.”
Would you agree with Mr. Mulroney, both you and Mr. Marshall?
Former National Campaign Manager, Conservative Party of Canada, As an Individual
Any foreign interference needs to be combatted and needs to be taken very, very seriously. That's why I think Parliament should take this seriously and push forward for strong legislation so that you can combat this, because such legislation doesn't exist right now.
Conservative
Partner, Research, One Persuasion Inc., As an Individual
Absolutely. As I said before, even if one riding's result is changed and that doesn't change the government, we can't just shrug our shoulders and say, well, it didn't change the government. Those people don't have the representative they otherwise would have.
Conservative
Blaine Calkins Conservative Red Deer—Lacombe, AB
Mr. DeLorey, you did mention that there was a difference between the expected results and the actual results in some ridings. I know that we have windows, and I don't want you to divulge anything you don't want to, but I have asked specifically the officials who were here if a foreign government was able to move the needle. Your opening remarks suggested to me that the needle wasn't where you expected it to be. Can you give this committee any indication of how far that needle was able to be moved by a foreign government?
Former National Campaign Manager, Conservative Party of Canada, As an Individual
That's very difficult to answer, because we don't know what moved the needle. I was reading the memo before, but it's....
Obviously, we didn't do as well with Chinese Canadians as we had hoped to do in certain ridings. The numbers dipped in 10 or 11 ridings that were historically different. Was it interference or was it our hardline approach? It's a challenge to say what did this or not. It's something that can never be answered. We don't know, and we will never know at this stage, but again, if we put in the right legislative steps, maybe we can determine that better next time.
Liberal
Greg Fergus Liberal Hull—Aylmer, QC
Thank you very much, Madam Chair.
Thank you, Mr. Marshall and Mr. DeLorey. I really do appreciate the roles you played in the campaign. Having played a similar role before I was elected, I'm very sympathetic to what you do. I have some quick questions for you.
Mr. Marshall, regarding some of the ridings that are under review here, were those ridings, as we would say in French, des châteaux forts Conservative ridings? Were they Conservative fiefdoms or were they tight, tight ridings?
Partner, Research, One Persuasion Inc., As an Individual
I can't speak to the details of the 2021 campaign, but I would say that the Chinese Canadian vote was a very strong vote for us in 2019. We picked up the Richmond seat. Of the six most heavily Chinese Canadian seats in Canada, Conservatives won three in 2019 and the Liberals won three. There were about 90,000 votes cast for both parties in those six ridings combined, and we did well elsewhere—
Liberal
Greg Fergus Liberal Hull—Aylmer, QC
That's exactly the point I was trying to make, Mr. Marshall. In 2015 those ridings had flipped the other way. They were very competitive ridings that toggled between Liberals and the Conservatives through elections. As a matter of fact, if my numbers are correct, going from the 2019 to the 2021 election, you're seeing a net 1.6% in favour of the Liberals over the Conservatives, which allowed those ridings to flip. These are not 10% or 12% gaps.
Partner, Research, One Persuasion Inc., As an Individual
Well, no; I mean, in Markham-Unionville we got over 50% of the vote in both 2015 and 2019. In Richmond Centre we got well over 50% of the vote in 2019. They were strong Conservative seats. The size of the drop in those seats was definitely noticeable when the party dropped only half a point in the national popular vote.
Liberal
Greg Fergus Liberal Hull—Aylmer, QC
Again, looking at Ontario, we're seeing that the Conservatives were down 3% and the Liberals up 4.6%, for a net 1.6%. In B.C. ridings, Conservatives were down 4% and Liberals up 5.6%, again for a net 1.6%.
If you go back to 2011 and 2015, these ridings had played in both parties' hands. These were good, tight ridings. It's not surprising that they were on your list of targeted ridings, and it shouldn't be any surprise that they were on the list of Liberal ridings to be targeted, I would imagine.
Partner, Research, One Persuasion Inc., As an Individual
Look, I'm not going to sit here and say that Erin O'Toole did a better job of winning votes in 2021 than we did in 2019. They lost votes and seats. But the fact of the matter is that in a place like Richmond Centre, we won that by 21% in 2019. That's a pretty safe seat with a 21% margin. To end up losing it by a couple of points is a big, big shift, well out from where the national shift was or where the shift was in the province of British Columbia or even in the Lower Mainland as a whole.
Liberal
The Chair Liberal Bardish Chagger
Thank you.
I want to thank you for giving us a little bit extra of your time and for agreeing to join us.
If there's anything else that you perhaps want to add or share, please do not hesitate to send it to the clerk. The clerk will have it distributed to members.
With that, I really want to thank you for your time, attention and service. I hope you keep well and safe.
I have to remind members of the committee that we're meeting tonight from 6:30 to 8:30 back in this room. We have two really exciting panels.
On Thursday, we will begin at 10 a.m. with a steering committee meeting from 10 a.m. to 11 a.m. Then we will have Minister Mendicino on foreign election interference. For the third hour, we will proceed with the first panel of our colleagues concerning the report of the Federal Electoral Boundaries Commission for Ontario.
Also, beginning this Thursday, next Tuesday and next Thursday, so for three days, we will be meeting in room 225 of West Block—upstairs. So it's room 225 in West Block for Thursday, next Tuesday and Thursday, but tonight come back here.
We'll see you at 6:30. Have a good night.
With that, the meeting is adjourned.