Honestly, you could probably apply the same categories to Canadians living in Canada. We don't have great voter turnout, and there have been years when we've been really worried about it.
I was trying to memorize your categories as you said them, so that I would be able to come up with some kind of intelligent answer to your question.
When we started studying this stuff really in depth back in 2000, when voter turnout was something like 62% in a federal election, those sorts of categories emerged. There are people who could not vote for administrative or whatever reasons operationally; it didn't happen, even though they wanted to. There were some people who didn't like any of the choices and didn't want to vote for anyone, and then there were people who were totally turned off the process and were just not interested in it at all. You had this kind of divide between those who purposely didn't vote, the ones who engaged but didn't like the choices, and then some who just didn't engage at all. The worry, I think, was more the ones who just self-selected out of the whole process.
There are lots of debates to be had about how big a problem the decline of voter turnout is. How bad is it? Should we really be worried about this? When we see provincial elections with fewer than 50% of eligible voters voting, to me, that's a major problem.
What do we expect in terms of a voter turnout for Canadians living abroad? I would anticipate that it would be less than the overall turnout for people living here, because you don't have the parties reaching out to you as much—I don't think, anyway. Do political parties have lists of Canadians living abroad? Are those lists as up to date as the ones you have for Canadians living here?
I'd be interested in the data on how many Canadians living abroad give donations to political parties. Do they show other ways of getting engaged in the process? I think it probably has a lot to do with how much you're staying informed about this sort of thing. It would be a very individual kind of calculation.
The answer to your question—a long one, I'm sorry—is that I don't know. I think it's really hard to know. For people living anywhere in the world who are Canadian citizens, they could have all kinds of reasons for not voting, but if we want to identify low voter turnout among Canadians living abroad as a problem and something we want to do something about, I think political parties would have to take a leadership role in getting really engaged in that.