Evidence of meeting #7 for Human Resources, Skills and Social Development and the Status of Persons with Disabilities in the 39th Parliament, 1st Session. (The original version is on Parliament’s site, as are the minutes.) The winning word was population.
Liberal
Joe McGuire Liberal Egmont, PE
I'll go back to the oil sands for a moment. Do you have any real numbers on the people who left Atlantic Canada for Alberta in the last five years?
Coordinator, Research and Analysis, Demography Division, Statistics Canada
No, I don't have that information with me right now. What I know is that Alberta is really attracting a lot of internal migrants in recent years. I don't have the exact number by province right now.
Liberal
Joe McGuire Liberal Egmont, PE
There was a story in the National Post some months ago that said 300 people had left in the last two years from Prince Edward Island to go to Alberta. There had to be at least 500 from my riding during the election campaign, so the numbers don't really reflect the mobility and the numbers that are leaving the region.
We're at the point now that our construction companies, which are seasonal in most of this country, can't find enough skilled labour for their own crews.
I'd just like to know the real numbers and the effect this is having. In Atlantic Canada we have always had out migration. Now we have an aging population and a low birth rate as well. We're going to get hit triply. Right now we're feeling it. Not only are young people going west to Alberta, but people with kids, people in their 40s, are also going out. We see it's getting to be a major demographic problem for Atlantic Canada, and there are no immigrants coming in. If immigrants do come in, they don't stay very long.
Manager, Current Economic Analysis, Statistics Canada
In the labour force survey numbers you can see that two provinces, Saskatchewan and Newfoundland, are losing population outright. In the last year, Newfoundland's population is down 0.5%, and they've been losing population for 10 years.
The population growth, as you say, in the other area, particularly New Brunswick.... It's only 0.3% in the last year; New Brunswick is 0.2% and P.E.I. is 0.5%. So overall there's been a net increase of about 1,000 people in the Atlantic provinces in the last year, which is nothing.
From the interprovincial migration statistics, we can certainly see which provinces they're going to. I don't know specifically if we have data for the oil sands, but--
Coordinator, Research and Analysis, Demography Division, Statistics Canada
We have the flow of internal migrants from one province to the other. I can have the exact number, but your question is so specific that I don't really have the number right now, but I can provide it to you.
Conservative
The Chair Conservative Dean Allison
That's all the time for this round. We're going to move to the next questioner. I believe it's Mr. Lessard. Are you going to lead off again?
It's Mr. Lessard, for five minutes.
Bloc
Yves Lessard Bloc Chambly—Borduas, QC
Thank you, Mr. Chairman.
Earlier on, you reminded us that sometimes the job market remains stable even though the unemployment rate goes down. That is because some people are no longer in the job market. Therefore, you are no longer considered as being available for employment.
We have heard various responses on this issue. I think you are in the best position to inform us. How exactly is the employment percentage established? I'll explain. Take, for example, older workers who are having trouble finding a new job, who have run out of employment insurance benefits and are receiving income security benefits. That's often what happens. I'm referring, for example, to people I met in Montmagny, in the Gaspé, and so on, where there are no openings in their areas. This is mainly due to their age, but also to the fact that their qualifications no longer correspond to those required for the available jobs. Are those people taken into account in the calculation of the unemployment rate?
Director General, Labour and Household Surveys, Statistics Canada
The unemployment rate is based on the number of people who have a job and the number of people who are seeking employment or who will begin working within four weeks. People who are not seeking employment and are not working are outside the job market and are not considered to belong to the workforce, and are therefore not included in the unemployment rate calculations.
Manager, Current Economic Analysis, Statistics Canada
We asked individuals why they have not looked for a job. Was it because of bad working conditions, for example? That type of question allows us to determine why that situation exists.
Bloc
Yves Lessard Bloc Chambly—Borduas, QC
I'll be more specific. Take, for example, a business that shut down two or two and a half years ago in Montmagny. About 50 older workers are no longer looking for work in that area because nothing has been offered to them. The first year, one 57 year-old man, in good shape, with a good trade, was only given one interview after 91 job applications. Therefore he stopped looking. However, he would have liked to have work. The only way for him to get work would have been to move to Montreal. At his age, he would have to sell everything, and so on. In Montmagny, there is therefore a pool of approximately 50 older workers who are able to work but are no longer looking for work. If I have understood correctly, they are not counted in the unemployment rate calculations.
Director General, Labour and Household Surveys, Statistics Canada
That is correct. As Philip just mentioned and as I pointed out, it is important to include several measures of activity within the job market, in other words, not to focus only on the unemployment rate. Other measures have to be considered. The phenomenon you are raising can be taken into account by asking a specific question. Therefore, this phenomenon can be studied based on data that we possess. That segment of the population is defined as being outside the workforce, and that method complies with international standards. However, we can still tell you how large that segment of the population is, that is the number of people who are not working and are not looking for employment because they feel there is no work available. We can provide you with those numbers.
Manager, Current Economic Analysis, Statistics Canada
That is why there is a series of interesting data. For example, the unemployment rate, as you say, is not always the best indicator. It is perhaps preferable to look at the percentage of the population that is employed, which varies greatly. It is about 50 per cent in Newfoundland, 60 per cent in Quebec, and over 70 per cent in Alberta. Sometimes, it is preferable to refer to other measures that paint a more comprehensive picture.
Bloc
Yves Lessard Bloc Chambly—Borduas, QC
I would like to ask you another short question.
On a different topic, you indicated a little earlier on that approximately 13.5 million people work full time and that 3 million people work part time. Do you have those statistics by province?
Bloc
Yves Lessard Bloc Chambly—Borduas, QC
It is about 22 per cent for all of Canada. I assume that it must vary from one province to another.
Manager, Current Economic Analysis, Statistics Canada
Absolutely, do you want me to answer now?
Conservative
The Chair Conservative Dean Allison
Okay, that's time.
We're going to move to our next questioner, Ms. Savoie.
NDP
Denise Savoie NDP Victoria, BC
Thank you, Mr. Chairman.
You said that the drop-out rate had gone down in Canada. How do you measure the link between employability and the level of education? What level of education makes someone employable?
Director, Culture, Tourism and the Centre for Education Statistics, Statistics Canada
Graphs have been around for a long time. They show, for example, the relationship between the unemployment rate and level of education. I will send you the graph. Four levels of education are very clearly distinguished: people who have a university degree, people who have another post-secondary degree, those who have a high school diploma and those who do not have a high school diploma. The four lines are parallel. As the level of education goes up, the unemployment rate goes down. Moreover, when the economy fluctuates, we see that people with a higher level of education are less affected by economic cycles. Their unemployment rate is more constant, whereas those who have a lower level of education, especially people who have not completed high school, have a much higher unemployment rate which fluctuates much more with the economic cycles.
NDP
Denise Savoie NDP Victoria, BC
So we can conclude that access to education and training is very important.
Have you studied the phenomena or the causes that could be linked to access to education? I am thinking, for example, about having a low income, living in a rural area, being aboriginal. Are there other phenomena? Have you studied that link? There is a lot of talk about difficulties accessing education, since tuition fees have really shot up in recent years.
Director, Culture, Tourism and the Centre for Education Statistics, Statistics Canada
I could send you several studies on that topic. In fact, both participation rates and program completion rates vary according to people's socio-economic level. That is true for aboriginals. I have the impression that there are also nuances based on access. However, the results are not as clear as far as the variation in tuition fees is concerned. That does not appear to have a major impact on access, even among lower-income people.