National Defence Committee on March 9th, 2022

[MGen Paul Prévost]

There are several aspects to this question. I will start to answer it, but then I will likely turn it over to Mr. Hamilton from the Department of Foreign Affairs, Trade and Development.

We are looking at all possible short-term scenarios in Ukraine right now. Of course we're concerned about the escalation by Putin, but we're also looking at what goals he can really achieve given the problems he has had in the last few days of his campaign. We're looking at short-term scenarios and we have begun to look at long-term scenarios as well.

I will turn it over to Mr. Hamilton to complete my response, because this is not simply a military campaign.

[The Chair, Liberal, John McKay]

I will just point out that she has about 15 seconds left in her response. Madame Normandin has two more rounds available to her, so I would suggest that if you could respond during that period of time, it would be good. That way, we can stay on time.

With that, Madam Mathyssen, you have six minutes. Go ahead, please.

[Lindsay Mathyssen, NDP, London—Fanshawe, ON]

Thank you, Mr. Chair.

There have been a lot of conversations about Putin being held to account for these activities as war crimes. How can we help in accounting for or surveilling that and the war crimes being committed against Ukrainian people?

[MGen Paul Prévost]

Mr.Chair, perhaps I'll take the first shot at this again, and then turn it over to my colleagues from Global Affairs if they have anything to add.

We're obviously aware of this. We're concerned about this. We're reading it, as you are, in open sources. We are using our intelligence centres to try to gather a bit more evidence about this, obviously, as it could be used later on in the process here.

I don't know if it's going to go to Kevin or to Heidi.

[Kevin Hamilton]

Certainly I'm happy to take on the rest of that question, General.

As the general said, we're monitoring the situation with every capacity that we have in order to detect instances of war crimes and crimes against humanity. Already Canada has been a leading state in referring this conflict by Russia to the International Criminal Court. An investigation will be opened by the prosecutor of that court, and all evidence that we collect as well as evidence from civil society and from our allies will be put at the disposal of that court.

Separately, in The Hague, the International Court of Justice has opened an investigation against Russia for war crimes and crimes against humanity.

Finally, at the OSCE, Canada, along with many of our partners in that body, has invoked what's called the “Moscow Mechanism”. It is a process whereby the OSCE sends in monitors, at a time when it can do so safely, to collect information about abuses against human rights and not war crimes as such but impediments on the humanitarian situation.

[Lindsay Mathyssen, NDP, London—Fanshawe, ON]

We've also seen several attempts to hold peace talks. Yet during those peace talks, during the creation of the—I forget exactly the term—corridors where people could move through, there have been attacks on those. There have been attacks on Ukrainians in order to influence Ukraine in those those talks, to have them concede more. Could you give your feedback or your commentary on that? Will the Russians continue to do that? Are these corridors...? Will we seem them consistently in the future?

[Kevin Hamilton]

General, would you like me to take that one again?

[MGen Paul Prévost]

Yes, sure, Kevin. I actually thought it was for you from the get-go.

[Kevin Hamilton]

Mr. Chair, yes, we've seen a number of attempts at ceasefires to open up the humanitarian corridors, and each time there has been a violation of those ceasefires by the Russian side. That's obviously a very cynical and cruel act. But of course, we continue to call on both parties to create those humanitarian ceasefires, to create those corridors and to sustain them.

I know that talks are continuing between the Russians and the Ukrainians. I believe there will be talks in Turkey between those two parties as early as tomorrow. One of the objectives that we've been calling for is to create sustainable ceasefires.

[Lindsay Mathyssen, NDP, London—Fanshawe, ON]

General, do you have anything to add on that?

[MGen Paul Prévost]

I don't, ma'am, unless you have a specific question on it.

[Lindsay Mathyssen, NDP, London—Fanshawe, ON]

Okay.

I will move on a little bit to China. Obviously everyone watches China as well. They have sent out mixed signals about the Russian conflict. It seems that they are being a bit coy and are hedging their bets on this.

What involvement or support has China given to Russia that we know of and that we're watching? Again, I'd like your opinions on that. The question is for both GAC and General Prévost.

[MGen Paul Prévost]

Maybe I will offer Kevin the first cut at it and I will come in with something additional if required.

[Kevin Hamilton]

I can't say that we have seen any explicit support by China for Russia in this. In fact, we took note of the Chinese foreign minister's recent statement that the sovereignty, independence and territorial integrity of any country should be respected and safeguarded, and that Ukraine is no exception.

China has also called on all sides to exercise restraint, avoid escalation and ensure the safety of Ukraine's nuclear facilities.

Canada will continue to call on China to act in accordance with these principles. Something we're trying to convey to the Chinese is that they face a momentous choice here as to how they will exercise their global influence and that they can support efforts to bring an end to this conflict as soon as possible.

[The Chair, Liberal, John McKay]

Be very brief, General.

[MGen Paul Prévost]

Maybe I will add one piece here. I think as the alliance, as the west, we're demonstrating our unity here. I think China is probably noting this.

[The Chair, Liberal, John McKay]

Thank you, Madam Mathyssen.

That completes our first round.

Before we go to the second round, I want a point of clarification, Mr. Hamilton. You said that Canada has already started to refer cases of gross breaches of human rights to the International Criminal Court.

As I understood it—and you can correct me if I'm wrong—Americans are not signatories to that treaty. Are they able, therefore, to refer cases to the court?

[Kevin Hamilton]

I believe they are not, Mr. Chair. I believe only parties to the Rome Statute, which created the International Court, can make those referrals. That's one of the reasons Canada, as opposed to any number of other countries, led in that process.

[The Chair, Liberal, John McKay]

Thank you.

That takes us to the next round, which begins with Mr. Ruff.

Mr. Ruff, welcome back to the committee. You have five minutes. Go ahead, please.

[Alex Ruff, Conservative, Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound, ON]

Thanks, Chair.

It's always good to see you, General Prévost.

I think I know the answer, but I would like your take on it. Why did we, as well as the other western forces, pull our troops out of Ukraine? Hindsight being what it is, had we left them in, they could potentially have contained Putin's advance to just the eastern oblast, the eastern provinces.

[MGen Paul Prévost]

Thank you, Mr. Chair.

It's good to see you again, Mr. Ruff. We worked together not too long ago.

To answer the question, the Unifier mission was a training mission. It was a training mission that started in 2015, as you are well aware, to train Ukrainians to prepare for such an eventuality. It not being a combat mission, there was a certain level of risk that we were prepared to take with our troops, based on the intelligence we had at the time. We have to really thank the intelligence community for its effort over the last three months, for the cueing we had, for the intelligence we had, and for what we understood Putin's plans to be, including some intelligence that air attacks were imminent.

It was prudent to return our troops, initially to Western Ukraine to stay in country as long as they could. The last few elements of our troops left the morning of the attack. So we had great intelligence throughout, and it was a calculated decision.

[Alex Ruff, Conservative, Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound, ON]

Thanks for that. We can maybe get into that more deeply.

What would you say is the biggest risk militarily to both Ukrainians and our troops under Operation Reassurance in Latvia shy of a Russian nuclear strike?

[MGen Paul Prévost]

Shy of a nuclear strike—but I would say “shy of any attacks”—I think that would be a big decision by Mr. Putin to step any way outside the borders of Ukraine.

I think the biggest threat right now to our democracies and to Canadians and everybody else is the information and misinformation campaign that's going on. I think this is the highest stress at this time. I think people need to be informed properly. I think at the next round we will be ready for it. The alliance's efforts right now are focused on deterrence to make sure Putin understands what not to do. If required, we will be ready to defend.

[Alex Ruff, Conservative, Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound, ON]

But I want to get there too, General: What is the military risk? What is the next step if he does escalate, and in Ukraine as well? I'm not talking about just our troops. What's the real risk?

[MGen Paul Prévost]

I think the real risk will be on him. The alliance is unified. The alliance is prepared. We bring a lot of capabilities together. I think it would be a miscalculation from Mr. Putin at this point.