Evidence of meeting #8 for National Defence in the 44th Parliament, 1st session. (The original version is on Parliament’s site, as are the minutes.) The winning word was putin.
A recording is available from Parliament.
Conservative
Todd Doherty Conservative Cariboo—Prince George, BC
Admiral Hawco, in terms of protecting and defending Canada's Arctic sovereignty, would you agree that there are significant vulnerabilities on this front?
VAdm (Ret'd) Darren Hawco
On the question of vulnerabilities, I would say that Canada has, in Canada's Arctic, all the access that it needs, much more so than anyone else would. We have RADARSAT Constellation imagery 16, 17 or 20 times a day, so we know what's happening up there. That's not to say there isn't value for infrastructure and for increased opportunities for surveillance, which we will get ultimately through acquisitions. I don't know that there is an imminent risk of sovereignty issues in the north.
The one thing that we do see, Mr. Doherty, is normal ADIZ incursions by Russian Federation aircraft, which are met with by NORAD on a very routine basis.
Conservative
Todd Doherty Conservative Cariboo—Prince George, BC
Should we be modernizing NORAD's early warning system?
VAdm (Ret'd) Darren Hawco
I believe that NORAD's modernization efforts, which are planned and in active discussion, are intended to do just that.
Conservative
Todd Doherty Conservative Cariboo—Prince George, BC
Admiral Hawco, you talked about Putin's grey-zone tactics. Have we gone beyond his grey-zone tactics with the mobilization of his nuclear force?
VAdm (Ret'd) Darren Hawco
I would say that the actions in Ukraine represent classic examples of things that are not part of what one would look at as information confrontation activities, because it is actually kinetic in nature. But the actual signalling of an intent of use of nuclear assets is an example, I think, of grey-zone tactics, because it's intended to sow doubt, to cause fracture in alliance cohesion or in thought process and the like. It's an example, I would say, of the diplomatic part and the military part of information confrontation.
Conservative
Todd Doherty Conservative Cariboo—Prince George, BC
Professor Popova, would you like to elaborate, or jump in on that question as well?
Professor, McGill University, As an Individual
Yes.
I think that his invoking of nuclear escalation is signalling how committed he is to winning this war in Ukraine and how important Ukraine is to him. For Putin, it is primarily about taking control of Ukraine, and that's why he is trying to divide the alliance and to send a signal to the international community that he should be let to do that.
Conservative
Professor, McGill University, As an Individual
No, I don't think he should be let to do that, because Ukraine will not be the last country that he takes over. He has already de facto taken over Belarus. Belarus is used as a launching pad for his military operation. Arguably it is no longer an independent country, de facto. All the other post-Soviet states in the region should also fear if the west decides to yield to Putin's demands on Ukraine. There are several countries that are in the line for that. Then it gets to the NATO members, which are probably safe only by virtue of NATO expansion.
Conservative
Conservative
Todd Doherty Conservative Cariboo—Prince George, BC
To both of our witnesses, should Canada's stance—and, indeed, the west's—go beyond sanctions?
Admiral Hawco, go ahead.
VAdm (Ret'd) Darren Hawco
I would say that our response and support within a NATO context is the most appropriate foreign policy decision to make right now. Canada has consistently acted in that frame of reference in terms of European security. It certainly makes sense to continue to do that, recognizing the decisions that have been made by government already in terms of direct support of aid of various natures to Ukraine, which is an acknowledged partner of Canada.
Conservative
Professor, McGill University, As an Individual
Sanctions are already starting to work. The Russian ruble is crashing. The banks are under threat. If sanctions need to be escalated even more, that can be done. Military aid to Ukraine is going ahead. I think this is the way to go.
Conservative
Liberal
The Chair Liberal John McKay
Thank you, Mr. Doherty.
Mr. Fisher, I'm not going to start the clock. I understand that you have a motion and I understand that this motion has the consent of the other parties, so I'll call upon you to present your motion.
February 28th, 2022 / 3:45 p.m.
Liberal
Darren Fisher Liberal Dartmouth—Cole Harbour, NS
Thank you very much, Mr. Chair.
I want to take a moment to thank all members of this committee for being supportive of this motion, which will truly be a motion from this committee. I move:
That the Standing Committee on National Defence stands in solidarity with the people of Ukraine and the Government of Ukraine, and unequivocally condemns:
a. the unwarranted, unprovoked and egregious attack on Ukraine, which was ordered by Russian President Vladimir Putin, and represents a clear violation of Russia’s obligations under international law and the Charter of the United Nations;
b. the illegal invasion of Ukraine by the Russian Federation in 2014 and the illegal annexation of Crimea and occupation of eastern Ukraine; and,
c. President Putin and the Russian Government for these hostile and provocative violations of international law and on the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine.
In addition, the Committee calls on Canada, its allies, and the international community to stand resolutely in defence of the rules-based international order, human rights, and democracy in Ukraine and around the world.
Liberal
The Chair Liberal John McKay
Thank you, Mr. Fisher.
I'm assuming that everyone is in agreement with that and there's no need to call for a debate.
(Motion agreed to)
Thank you, Mr. Fisher, for your work.
Colleagues, thank you for that show of solidarity in a much-needed moment of solidarity.
With that, Mr. Fisher, you're on for six minutes.
Liberal
Darren Fisher Liberal Dartmouth—Cole Harbour, NS
Thank you very much.
Thank you so much to our witnesses. I'm sorry for that little delay.
Professor Popova, I don't have a quote right in front of me, but you talked about how Putin wants to rebuild the Russian empire and how he's trying to bring the other parts of the Russian empire back, I think you said, into the fold. If that's the case, then we have a really big problem looming. We can't have an international collective.... In 2014, the world yawned when we saw this Russian aggression. We're seeing a totally different response now.
What's next? Either you or Admiral Hawco talked about Putin. I think you both mentioned a legacy. I think Admiral Hawco was the one who said that only Putin really knows what he's trying to accomplish.
Where are we going, if your belief in this is accurate? There are an awful lot of countries out there, some of them NATO members now, that were part of the former Soviet Union. If he's thinking about a legacy, we have ourselves a real problem on our hands.
Professor, McGill University, As an Individual
We really do. I think there is no doubt that he is going for restoration, as much as he could achieve.
As I already mentioned, Ukraine is under attack, but Belarus is de facto now controlled by Russia. What we saw in January was Russian troops going to Kazakhstan to support the President of Kazakhstan to suppress popular demonstrations. Putin and Russia are becoming more and more interventionist in the area that used to be the Soviet Union.
If this brazen invasion of Ukraine succeeds and the west lets Putin take Ukraine, we can expect the non-NATO members that are former Soviet countries to be next in an assault. I mean Georgia and Moldova, probably. We should expect that this restoration.... What Putin has demonstrated with this invasion is that he is done with pretending to co-operate in any way with the west. He is now on an expansionist mission. He will try to get as much territory as he can, and he is prepared for another confrontation with the west. If it goes back to another cold war, so be it. I think he is already in that state of mind.
Liberal
Darren Fisher Liberal Dartmouth—Cole Harbour, NS
Professor, we're seeing already that Russian people are becoming victims of Putin's hostility and aggression. We're seeing tens of thousands of Russians speaking up and standing together in protest of these despicable actions. You mentioned that the Iron Curtain will close shut after this.
Can you explain a little more about what this will mean for average people in Russia? What will life look like after this?
Professor, McGill University, As an Individual
Well, it depends on how it ends. If Russian society mobilizes to stop this war, it would be hard to do it by making Putin give up on this war. The more likely scenario—which is early to be predicting, for sure—is that if the Russian people manage to stop this war, it will be through Putin's replacement by elites, somehow, who are not willing to go that far and bear the costs of these sanctions, or by some kind of popular mobilization that, again, forces the hands of elites to replace Putin with someone else.
If that happens, then the Iron Curtain's falling is averted, but we do not see that yet. Yes, we see some mobilization in Russia, but keep in mind that Putin has consolidated a very repressive regime over the last 10 years. He has been in power for 22 years, but it's in the last 10 years that he has really consolidated a repressive authoritarian regime. In that regime, it is very hard to protest. Russian people may be brave, but they may not be that brave.
Liberal
Darren Fisher Liberal Dartmouth—Cole Harbour, NS
Putin has ostensibly had a couple of years to prepare for sanctions and to have some type of a buffer. Will this pressure from his own people, from within, be something that might have more an impact on him than some sanctions would, when he sees protests and unrest among his own citizens?