Evidence of meeting #8 for National Defence in the 44th Parliament, 1st session. (The original version is on Parliament’s site, as are the minutes.) The winning word was putin.
A recording is available from Parliament.
Liberal
The Chair Liberal John McKay
Okay, we have to leave it there.
Colleagues, we're down to about 15 minutes, and we have 25 minutes' worth of questions here. I'm going to cut it back to three minutes each, and one minute for the NDP and the Bloc.
Starting with that, we have Mrs. Gallant for three minutes.
Conservative
Cheryl Gallant Conservative Renfrew—Nipissing—Pembroke, ON
Thank you, Mr. Chair.
Vice-Admiral, you mentioned that RADARSAT is not really sufficient in our eyes. It doesn't see under water, ice. We have no submarines that go beneath the ice and we cannot count on icebreakers. We're studying the threats to Canada. How does Putin's invasion of Ukraine impact Canada's security, including countries that may wish to take an opportunity to exploit the fact that we have a distraction and perhaps even lay claims to our Arctic natural resources?
VAdm (Ret'd) Darren Hawco
I guess the root of my answer is going to be that European security is a national interest issue for Canada, in the sense that it's part of a deep, rules-based international order fabric. What we're seeing in terms of the Russian Federation in Ukraine is a challenge against Westphalian structure and system. It's going to galvanize, and if the international community or the rules-based international order doesn't look to assert itself to rectify those kinds of situations or outcomes, then it's of national interest to Canada, and therefore has national security implications. That's the straightforward answer.
I think the Russian Federation's claim to the Arctic sea base underneath the floating ice cube, if you will, right to Canada and the Kingdom of Denmark's economic exclusion zone is indication of Russian interest in the Arctic in the context of the 25% or so of the global resources that have been unidentified and reside there.
I think those are somewhat separated. That's a really long-term issue. I wouldn't see it as a direct challenge to Canada's economic exclusion zone and Arctic sovereignty claims, but it does have implications for our United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea application to the Arctic base.
Conservative
Cheryl Gallant Conservative Renfrew—Nipissing—Pembroke, ON
Professor Popova, we heard Putin make the nuclear threat.
In your opinion, would he launch a nuclear strike over freezing access to his financials and the fallout we're seeing?
Professor, McGill University, As an Individual
It's a really difficult question. It's the million-dollar question, right? I think this is more of a bluff for him right now and a signal that he wants Ukraine really badly and is willing to threaten nuclear escalation if the west doesn't yield on Ukraine.
I doubt that this is over the sanctions, per se. I think he is signalling that Ukraine is really important to him. Ultimately, I think it's a bit of a bluff and there are others around him who may not be as willing to go that far.
Liberal
The Chair Liberal John McKay
That's not a million-dollar question. That's a $200-billion question.
Ms. Lambropoulos, you have three minutes, please.
Liberal
Emmanuella Lambropoulos Liberal Saint-Laurent, QC
Thank you, Mr. Chair, and thank you to both of our witnesses today.
For me, it's more a question of.... Currently they're in Ukraine. I understand that he wants it extremely badly. He's doing whatever he can and threatening whomever he can so that there's no external involvement.
Would you say that this is also an effort to destabilize Europe in general and NATO? What is the likelihood that if he were to conquer Ukraine, he would go into Poland or an actual NATO country to see whether or not NATO would react if he is threatening nuclear responses?
Professor, McGill University, As an Individual
I think it is definitely a bigger issue than Ukraine. He does want to challenge Europe as a whole, but I think if he can take Ukraine, the next targets would be other post-Soviet states that are not members of NATO. He has those to bring back into the fold before he turns to NATO.
Of course, if NATO basically allows this.... That's why it's in the interest of Europe and why we're seeing this huge reaction from Europe. This has to stop now, because the long-term implications are really significant.
VAdm (Ret'd) Darren Hawco
I take a similar view, but with a different slant. I agree that this is as much about European security and the place of the Russian Federation in the world as it is anything. Of course, Ukraine is a passionate issue for the Russian Federation, as Maria has mentioned.
I don't see it as likely that the Russian Federation would take offensive action against any NATO country, because the moment blood is spilled, it changes the level of issue dramatically.
The issue of nuclear weapons and raising alert states is not atypical when you see the establishment and movement of NATO troops toward Russia. It wasn't dissimilar in 2014 or in response to the establishment of forces in the Baltic countries. It's kind of a relatively normal calculus that says, “Hey, let's just be calm here”, from the Russian Federation point of view.
Bloc
Christine Normandin Bloc Saint-Jean, QC
Thank you.
I understand that we are quite certain that no attack will be made against a NATO member country. However, we don't want to be like Mr. Putin, who was visibly surprised that he didn't quickly achieve air supremacy. Therefore, shouldn't we envision the worst‑case scenarios and plan for them?
VAdm (Ret'd) Darren Hawco
The NATO alliance absolutely has the suite of plans and the resources necessary to deal with an issue at strategic scale. I'm sure the very high readiness joint task group commanded by France right now is getting ready. Those 5,000 troops are going to move.
You're seeing individual nations increase their troop contributions outside of the alliance-specific direction. I'm very sure that the NATO response force is being accelerated in terms of readiness, based on colleagues.
Bloc
VAdm (Ret'd) Darren Hawco
Yes. You've seen, in reporting, deployments of ships and readiness of aircraft. I'm aware of conversations with colleagues in that regard about NATO readiness posturing, following all the requirements directed by the alliance.
NDP
Lindsay Mathyssen NDP London—Fanshawe, ON
There are some countries that are aligning themselves with Russia; they're siding, certainly. Canada has put forward several sanctions against Russia and against the oligarchs, and so on. Does it make sense for Canada to do that against some of the allies to Russia? Is it a place for us to go? Is it effective?
Professor, McGill University, As an Individual
Which Russian allies do you have in mind, Belarus?
NDP
Lindsay Mathyssen NDP London—Fanshawe, ON
I'm thinking of the list of countries that have been in support. I want to say Israel. There were....
Professor, McGill University, As an Individual
They were just not very quick to condemn, but I wouldn't go as far as to say they're supporting. I think Russia is quite alone right now.
Belarus is, for sure, participating, but it has basically been taken over by Russia, de facto.
Liberal
The Chair Liberal John McKay
We'll have to leave it there. Thank you very much.
Mr. Motz, you have three minutes, please.
Conservative
Glen Motz Conservative Medicine Hat—Cardston—Warner, AB
Thank you, Chair.
Thank you to the witnesses, and thank you, Admiral, for your service.
Admiral, I'm just curious to know your view of the state of the NATO alliance and our military forces. Is Canada still considered to be a gold standard in that alliance?
VAdm (Ret'd) Darren Hawco
You know, I think just a very short anecdote will cover that off and then we'll preserve some time.
As Canada's military representative, I had a NATO country come up to me and say, “Yeah, but we're not a big country like Canada.” We have this view of ourselves as being a small country, but we have strategic mobility. We have fighters. We have a submarine force. We can talk about whether we're satisfied with it, but that's because we want to get 95% on the test. If you're talking to a country like Croatia, Lithuania, Belgium, the Netherlands or Norway, we're an enormous military with all the capabilities and capacities, including cyber and so on.
I do think Canada has and maintains its reputation, which is why we were asked, as one of the framework nations, to set up in Latvia to start with.