Environment Committee on Sept. 20th, 2022

[Kyle Seeback, Conservative, Dufferin—Caledon, ON]

Thank you very much.

Mr. Bradley, you started to get into exactly where I want to go, which is to look at some of the costs of this. RBC put out a report called “The $2 Trillion Transition: Canada's Road to Net Zero”. Electricity is a big part of that. Just to decarbonize the electric grid, they suggest that, starting now, somewhere in the neighbourhood of $5.4 billion will need to be spent every year for the next 28 years and that we will need to at least double the electricity capacity in this country by 2050.

Are you aware of any plans that have been put forward by the federal government to make sure we are able to implement these kinds of things as we move forward?

[Francis Bradley]

I thank the member for the question.

It is indeed a challenging future that we're facing. There have been a number of studies that have attempted to give a sense of the scope and scale—anywhere between $1.2 trillion and $2 trillion. When we're looking at doubling or tripling the electricity output in this country, that's huge, but doubling it between now and 2050 means having a 3% to 4% increase each year. That is doable, except that we're not doing it yet.

We're not really clear about exactly what that is going to look like and precisely what kind of support is going to be available, but we're actively in discussions on everything from what the investment climate may look like to the evolving clean electricity regulation that is being developed at this stage.

[Kyle Seeback, Conservative, Dufferin—Caledon, ON]

Do you have any idea what electric grid capacity increase will be necessary to meet the zero-emission vehicle targets that are coming in by 2030? We're seven years and four months away from that. I would think that's going to create a large draw on the existing electricity capacity. Do you know how much that will be? Again, has the government said what their plan is to help industry get to that over the next seven years and four months?

[Francis Bradley]

Yes, the challenge to meet the electrification of transportation is certainly one that will be enormous over the long term. Have there been plans that have been articulated at a national level? Not with respect to the grid itself, but certainly there have been with respect to what we understand will be the pace with which electric vehicles will be coming out. The responsibility for ensuring that our transmission and distribution systems will be ready for that is not something that is at the federal level. It's something that resides with the individual companies themselves.

It is also important that while we know when the target date is for all new vehicles to be electrified, that doesn't mean we will have to throw a switch on that day, because an internal combustion engine car is going to last for 10 or 15 years.

[Kyle Seeback, Conservative, Dufferin—Caledon, ON]

Sure.

[Francis Bradley]

So it will be a bit of a slower rollout, but it is a rollout, at least with respect to the electricity system, that needs to be managed at the individual company level and within what effectively are 13 different electricity systems in this country.

[Kyle Seeback, Conservative, Dufferin—Caledon, ON]

I'm aware that the federal government doesn't have the role of actually producing electricity in the country, but if industry has to double capacity and decarbonize the grid in order to meet these targets, someone is paying for that.

[Francis Bradley]

Absolutely—

[Kyle Seeback, Conservative, Dufferin—Caledon, ON]

Either industry is going to pay for it, or government is going to help industry pay for it. If government doesn't help industry pay for that, do you have any idea what the cost of that would be to the average consumer of electricity?

[Francis Bradley]

Thank you for that. It is about the individual consumer. When people say that it's the government paying for it or industry paying for it, what we're saying is that it's either the ratepayer or the taxpayer who is paying for it. It's not clear where all of these costs are ultimately going to fall. It is certainly something that is foremost in the minds of the sector. We're very conscious of the pressures and the price pressures.

It's also something that we are trying to get a better sense of with other stakeholders in this space. The Canadian Climate Institute has been doing modelling in this space. The Trottier Energy Institute has been doing modelling in this space.

It is not precisely clear what that is going to look like in the future, but it is certainly something that is top of mind when I talk to the CEOs of my member companies: the impacts on the individual customer.

[Kyle Seeback, Conservative, Dufferin—Caledon, ON]

Would you agree with me that the federal government has a role to make sure that all the costs of decarbonizing the electric grid and the expansion of the electric grid don't go down to the ratepayer, to the individual taxpayer?

[Francis Bradley]

Well, I guess the question is that the costs need to go somewhere. They will go either to the ratepayer or to the taxpayer or a combination of those two. There isn't a third pocket from which one can draw.

Our principal concern at this stage with respect to the energy transition is the speed with which it's taking place, and there is an important role that the Government of Canada can play. There have been announcements of projects, most recently in Labrador with the hydrogen project, for which we're told there could be a period of about two years to build the project, but, boy, to site a project and to go through all the hoops required to get a project moving forward, we're talking a decade.

A major hydroelectric project, for example, takes decades to go through all of these processes. Our net-zero commitments as a country are less than 5,000 days away, so that's where we see a principal role for the government.

[The Chair, Liberal, Francis Scarpaleggia]

Okay. We're out of time.

I'm told that Ms. Andrea Kent has been able to log on. I'll go to Ms. Kent for her opening statement—for three minutes max, please—and then we'll move on down the list of questioners.

Ms. Kent, go ahead, please.

There seems to be a connection problem.

I'm going to go to Mr. Duguid. Then we'll try to come back to Ms. Kent.

Mr. Duguid, you have six minutes, please.

[Terry Duguid, Liberal, Winnipeg South, MB]

Thank you, Mr. Chair.

Thanks to our witnesses for appearing today. My first question will go to Mr. Bradley.

As you pointed out, hydro power uses mature existing technology that of course we have been so blessed with in Manitoba. Hydro provides 95%, I believe, of our electricity needs, but it's 20% in Saskatchewan and only 5% in Alberta. In Manitoba, we've long talked about something we call the east-west power grid, sort of the Atlantic loop for western Canada, if you will. We have the Birtle subdivision, which is already providing electricity to Saskatchewan to help them in their decarbonization efforts. You have Site C, which has had its share of problems—I see a knowing look from Ms. Collins—but could potentially be a source of clean power for decarbonizing Alberta.

Do you have any comments on that vision? Is that a project that your association is seized with? I understand that one of the issues is the regulatory systems that have to be meshed, and of course the provincial rivalries. There may need to be some innovation there, to use your word. Is that the kind of thing we need to be looking at to really scale up our efforts and meet the electricity needs that you've spoken about?

[Francis Bradley]

I thank the member for the question. As I noted in my comments, if we're going to meet our 2050 targets and if we're going to double or triple the electricity system in this country, we will need an “all of the above” approach.

Transmission, and greater regional transmission, will absolutely be required for the future, but it is not the sole solution. None of these are the sole solution. Small modular reactors will be part of the future, but that is not the sole solution. Hydrogen will be part of the future. It is not the sole solution. The scope and scale of increasing our electricity two to three times will mean that we absolutely are going to have to rely on far greater transmission, inter-regional transmission, but that will be only one part of a larger solution. It's an “all of the above” approach.

[Terry Duguid, Liberal, Winnipeg South, MB]

Thank you.

I had the good fortune to speak at the Heating, Refrigeration and Air Conditioning Institute annual conference on Monday morning. I was just astounded to hear that all of the technology that we need to get to net zero in buildings exists. Their major ask of government—or of society, I suppose—is that they need upskilling and re-skilling. They need what we're calling the “just transition” approach for their particular sector. The building sector is responsible for 20% of greenhouse gases. We are investing staggering amounts of money, $2.6 billion, in home retrofits. There are not enough people to actually assess homes at this time.

Do you have any comments, Dr. Hoicka, on the issue of workforce development, not only in the building sector but also in the renewables sector, if we're going to achieve the kind of goals you mentioned?

[Dr. Christina Hoicka]

Yes, absolutely. I think it's a really important part of a just energy transition. This is what we hear everywhere. I think quite a few organizations in Canada are willing and able to start to support workforce transition in this area.

[Terry Duguid, Liberal, Winnipeg South, MB]

Mr. Bradley, do you have any comments on workforce development?

[Francis Bradley]

Absolutely. It's a priority right now.

Today we're having challenges with ensuring that we have a sufficient workforce for the electricity system that we have currently. The skill sets are going to change in the future. It is something that the industry is very much seized with and conscious of. I keep talking about the doubling or tripling of the electricity system, but it's also going to be a different kind of system. There will be different skill sets required for that future. It is something that we are very much engaged in with a number of our partners.

[Terry Duguid, Liberal, Winnipeg South, MB]

Thank you, Mr. Chair.

[The Chair, Liberal, Francis Scarpaleggia]

Before we go to Madame Vignola, I'll try Ms. Kent one more time.

Ms. Kent, are you there?

[Andrea Kent, Board Member and Past President, Renewable Industries Canada]

Yes.

[The Chair, Liberal, Francis Scarpaleggia]

Go ahead with your three-minute opening statement.

[Andrea Kent]

Third time's the charm. Thanks so much for the accommodation.

I've already been able to hear, from colleagues here on the panel, a couple of key aspects, one of which is that certainly there is no perfect solution—

[The Chair, Liberal, Francis Scarpaleggia]

Excuse me, Ms. Kent, but the microphone is not activated. You're actually speaking into the computer. There's a switch at the bottom of your screen. You'll see, probably, a little arrow. You choose the headset.