Thank you for inviting me, Chairman Easter.
I'm a tenured associate professor at Carleton University's Sprott School of Business. In the past 24 months, I've authored two peer-reviewed publications on Canada's retirement system, one in Carleton University's How Ottawa Spends, and one in an American pension journal with my colleague, Chancellor Professor Vijay Jog. I've also co-authored two monographs this year on the pension system in Canada, at the Macdonald-Laurier Institute think tank.
Before I go into my comments, I have a shout-out to your support staff, who have been extremely helpful. I didn't get the documents to them until yesterday, and yet they managed to pull it off and get them translated and printed. I give them my very gracious thanks.
First my disclosures, and then I'll get right into it. I don't consult to anyone or anything anywhere in the world. I'm not a paid or unpaid or registered or unregistered lobbyist. I don't belong to or donate monies to any political party or NGO anywhere. Finally, I only source empirical data in my research from OECD countries' government departments and IGOs such as the OECD, the IMF, and other international bodies. I do not source data from political parties or elected officials, or from NGOs or unions, because they're political or social activists with an agenda.
I'm going to focus on pension reform for both OAS and CPP in my short five minutes.
One of the great urban legends in Canada today is the story of large numbers of impoverished senior citizens possibly reduced to eating cat food due to mean-spirited social policies.
Never let it be said that we baby boomers are terrible marketers. We have managed to convince large numbers of Canadians, in concert with some NGOs, such as CARP, of this false urban legend, yet Stats Canada shows that the wealthiest of cohorts in all of Canadian society are our seniors—and I will disclose that in 18 months from now, I become one of them—while the cohort with the least amount of assets and income is our young people, who we refer to as the “millennials”.
In a book published in 2012, which every member of Parliament and senator should read, the following was said. This is a direct quote: “Crisis? What crisis? There exist persistent myths about the Canadian retirement situation. We think of our seniors as living in near poverty when the elder poverty rate is half that of working Canadians.”
The book was called The Real Retirement. The author was Bill Morneau, the current finance minister, and the 2012 data in that book was and is correct. Demography changes very slowly. A country's demography does not change in 48 months. I say that for anyone who argues that circumstances are different today than in 2012.
In fact, since OAS, GIS, and CPP were introduced in the fifties, elder poverty in Canada has crashed and collapsed in Canada, not skyrocketed, as some have alleged. Per OECD Pensions at a Glance, Canada has one of the lowest rates of elder poverty, with 7.2% of elders below the poverty line. Remember, the OECD countries are the richest countries in the world. This means that we have one of the lowest rates of elder poverty on the planet earth—11th lowest.
Can we do more to address the 7.2% of elders below the poverty line? Absolutely, by targeting them through an increase in the GIS, which your government did in this budget and which should be strongly supported—and indeed I do—and by providing 100% survivor benefits on CPP to those seniors, who are, typically, the “elder” elder females, and who lack their own CPP. When their husband dies, the benefits drop.
Let's turn to those not yet retired. The McKinsey study on retirement readiness of Canadians showed that approximately 85% of Canadians not yet retired are pension ready, meaning 15% are not. Also, do note, because some may dismiss this as as a consulting firm, that this research largely duplicated and confirmed the peer-reviewed research of Professor Kevin Milligan at UBC, Professor Jack Mintz at Calgary, and Mr. Baldwin, formerly with the Canadian Labour Congress.
To summarize these researchers, first, the bottom quintile of Canadians experiences a significant increase in retirement of some 25%, because they were previously low-income workers and the OAS, GIS, and CPP lift them up.
Second, most Canadians are pension ready, while a minority of 15% are not. This suggests three startling conclusions: one, the lack of pension readiness lies amongst some in the middle and upper middle class, not the bottom quintile; second, pension reform should focus on targeted policies, not universal policies such as universal CPP reform, to address the 15% who are not pension ready in the middle and upper middle classes; and finally, this suggests very strongly that universal CPP reform is completely unnecessary, because 85% of Canadians are pension ready.
I have a final issue, and then I'll wrap up, and that's the reduction of OAS eligibility back to 65.
Several analysts argued in op-eds in The Globe and Mail that this was a terrible decision because it was not evidence-based. For those who read OECD regularly—and I certainly do—it has for several years urged OECD countries to increase the age of pensionability as we're living much longer. To deal with the canard that's been alleged that critics such as myself are suggesting that the pension system will bankrupt Canada, this is absolute nonsense. Canada is one of the wealthiest countries in the world, with one of the highest GDPs per capita in the world. I think this was a straw man concocted to obscure the real issue: all resources are scarce and finite, not unlimited, and this means that decision-makers such as you, as parliamentarians, must economize scarce resources by not squandering those scarce resources on less critical wants instead of more urgent needs. Indeed, I'll go further.