Finance Committee on Feb. 2nd, 2026

[Pat Kelly, Conservative, Calgary Crowfoot, AB]

Thank you.

You said in response to an earlier question that the best guess at this preliminary stage is a cost of $60 billion to $90 billion. Others have estimated the cost will be much higher than that.

What assurance can you have that there will not be catastrophic overruns on this project and that you won't, in fact, be back at a committee like this one or perhaps public accounts to explain yourself?

[Martin Imbleau]

To have overruns, you need a budget that is established. To have a budget, you need engineering. To have engineering, you need an alignment. Today, we are at the stage of a corridor. We will have an alignment in the fall. We will do a couple of years of engineering. That is when we will have a credible budget.

That's why I prefer to use the expression “working assumptions” and I'm not advancing this as a budget, because the work has not been sufficiently advanced. We will have a budget later on in the process.

[Pat Kelly, Conservative, Calgary Crowfoot, AB]

Thank you. Understood.

I do understand the inability to have a detailed budget at this preliminary stage, but I think Canadians would be forgiven if they took little comfort from this.

I bring to the committee's attention the example of the Trans Mountain pipeline. Parliamentarians were assured when the government, after it had chased out private capital to build this project, purchased the Trans Mountain pipeline and created a Crown corporation structure to build it. The cost overrun on that project was, I guess, somewhere between 500% and 1,000%, depending on whether you want to count Kinder Morgan's initial budget or the first budget that was given to Parliament.

Canadians need some real assurance that $60 billion won't turn into $300 billion. How quickly could you give a real budget that's realistic, could be adhered to and could be successfully reported back to Parliament and the public accounts one day?

[Martin Imbleau]

Thanks for the question. I appreciate the concern.

The best practices are that you need to spend 5% to 10% of your potential cost to have a detailed estimate. That's how big projects get done. If you look at the recipe, what's been done elsewhere and the book that was written on it, you need to invest at least 5% to 8% or 10% of it.

We're not there yet. That's why having the alignment later in the year and detailing the engineering and getting the permits is very sensitive before presenting a budget estimate. Before next year, I won't be in a position to have a budget estimate because sufficient work has not been done.

[Pat Kelly, Conservative, Calgary Crowfoot, AB]

What per passenger subsidy will be necessary to operate this?

[Martin Imbleau]

The intent of this project is to be self-sustaining from an operational standpoint.

[Pat Kelly, Conservative, Calgary Crowfoot, AB]

Okay. Thank you. That's good.

What's the current per passenger subsidy on the existing rail that you operate?

[Martin Imbleau]

I don't have that, but that may be something we can find. Where I was going is that—

[Pat Kelly, Conservative, Calgary Crowfoot, AB]

Two dollars for every one received in passenger fares is, I think, generally understood.

I wondered whether you had confirmed that.

[Martin Imbleau]

The 25 million passengers this project will attract will cover not only the cost of the operation but also remove the subsidy being granted to Via Rail in the corridor today. We will absorb the operational costs as well as the subsidy.

[Pat Kelly, Conservative, Calgary Crowfoot, AB]

Okay. One certainly hopes that's how this will go down.

Again, I hope you understand the extent to which Canadians will wish to hold the government to account for being able to deliver a project that doesn't become a massive taxpayer boondoggle as so many others have before.

We've become accustomed to the government announcing amounts and assuring or claiming to Canadians that things will be built only to find massive overruns. I don't know how many times in my own city the government has reannounced the funds to build the green line, which is still not built. It was a Harper-era initial announcement that has been reannounced so many times by this government that I've lost track, yet it is not complete with only a very small portion of that track even being built.

Canadians will want to have assurance that this infrastructure is not only built but is built under a budget that's adhered to and becomes a financial success in moving Canadians across the country.

I'd be happy to hear any assurance you can give this committee.

[The Chair, Liberal, Karina Gould]

Thank you very much, Mr. Kelly. That concludes your time.

We will conclude now.

I'm turning now to Mr. Lavoie.

Mr. Lavoie, you have the floor for five minutes.

[Steeve Lavoie, Liberal, Beauport—Limoilou, QC]

Thank you, Madam Chair.

Mr. Imbleau, thank you for being here today.

We have met a few times in the past. I don't know if you remember me, but I was president of the Chambre de commerce et d'industrie de Québec. I even invited you to talk about the high-speed rail project and take part in a number of consultations on the matter. You'll understand, then, that I'm going to be wearing my Quebec City citizen hat a bit today.

How can you assure the people of Quebec City that the high-speed rail will actually come to Quebec City? I ask because I heard that the project would be carried out in a number of phases. From what I understand, the Quebec City-Montreal phase won't be done first, but the people of Quebec City would like to know today what stops the high-speed rail will have in Quebec City.

I'll then ask you some economic questions about you.

[Martin Imbleau]

It's good to see you again, Mr. Lavoie. I'll be fortunate enough to be in your old stomping grounds next Monday. I'll be making the same presentation to the Chambre de commerce et d'industrie de Québec.

I've said it before, and I'll say it again: My mandate is written in black and white by the government. There will be seven stops, seven stations, covering nearly 1,000 kilometres. In no scenario is there a possibility of excluding a station in Quebec City. So there will definitely be stations in Trois-Rivières and Quebec City.

[Steeve Lavoie, Liberal, Beauport—Limoilou, QC]

Thank you, Mr. Imbleau. It's on the record. I will be pleased to keep that information in mind.

I would like to know what mechanisms are currently in place to guarantee that the project will be carried out and that costs will be controlled. Earlier, we heard a lot about cost overruns, but I'd like to hear you talk about the mechanisms in place for that. I know you look ahead, that you want to make progress before deciding on certain costs, but what mechanisms are in place to ensure that the project is completed and that costs are kept under control?

[Martin Imbleau]

Thank you. The two are somewhat related, Mr. Lavoie.

For our part, we have no projects other than the high-speed train. We're not the ones who are going to carry out the project. We're a project office that partners with a private consortium, and they will manage the project for the most part. Our job, first and foremost, is to oversee the project and be its moral compass and public guarantor in order to move it forward.

We'll oversee the Cadence consortium's work, which will be paid to move the project forward. It will be our job to supervise everything related to its procurement and advancement strategies. At the same time, we will report regularly to our board of directors, Transport Canada, the Auditor General and, finally, Parliament.

Our only job is not to do anything else but manage the project with the best talent in the world. We have hired engineers, lawyers, people from all over the world, who have developed major projects and who also have experience in high-speed rail. They are now part of our team.

[Steeve Lavoie, Liberal, Beauport—Limoilou, QC]

Thank you.

You talked about being a moral and public guarantor. What is your area of intervention compared to the private group? Can you intervene, for example, to tell them that something costs too much, or tell them to do one thing rather than another? What are your limits for intervention compared to the private group?

[Martin Imbleau]

The owner of the project remains the Government of Canada. We are an extension of the government, and we are the ones who can decide on borders, limits or changes. So we are really the ones overseeing Cadence's work. There's a contractual regime that's in place. We want to give the consortium some leeway, but the policy decisions are made and will always be made by Alto, together with the government.

[Steeve Lavoie, Liberal, Beauport—Limoilou, QC]

You are confirming for us today that there really are mechanisms in place that will protect, if you will, the budget, which I talked about a little earlier. Along the way, will you be able to intervene, instead of reaching the end and being met with surprises, such as cost overruns?

[Martin Imbleau]

Visibility is going to be super important. It's not the end, but the visibility to come.

One of the reasons an initial section of 200 kilometres was proposed was to learn well in a slightly more controlled environment. It will not be easy, but it is still a little more limited than 1,000 kilometres, to properly deploy best practices, to learn, and then be able to move faster when we head toward Toronto and Quebec City afterwards.

[Steeve Lavoie, Liberal, Beauport—Limoilou, QC]

I see that time is running out. I would like a brief answer.

Once the 1,000 kilometre corridor is completed, how many people will use it? What was your estimate of the economic impact?

[Martin Imbleau]

Today, there are approximately 4 million passengers using the corridor. By mid-century, there will be 25 million, and later, at the end of the operating period, maybe close to 75 million to 80 million passengers.

We've had a chance to look at this, to do some microeconomic and macroeconomic analyses, and we can say that, once the trains are up and running, the economic contribution to the GDP of the country will be $25 billion.

[Steeve Lavoie, Liberal, Beauport—Limoilou, QC]

Per year?

[The Chair, Liberal, Karina Gould]

Thank you, Mr. Imbleau and Mr. Lavoie.

That's all the time we have for today.

I want to thank the witnesses for being with us.

You are free to go.

I want to remind colleagues that tomorrow we are going to be having the Minister of Finance here to discuss Bill C-19 for one hour from 6:30 to 7:30. I don't believe a notice has been sent yet, but it will be sent shortly.

We will be spending a lot more time together this week.

With that, I look to the committee to see if there's consent to adjourn.

Thank you very much. Have a great evening.