Foreign Affairs Committee on Feb. 3rd, 2022

[Garnett Genuis, Conservative, Sherwood Park—Fort Saskatchewan, AB]

Very quickly if it's possible, do you see a sense in which Ukraine could provide a precedent for Taiwan, or that there's a potential linkage in how those situations could play out?

[Sandra McCardell]

I think we're very attentive to the geostrategic implications of what's happening in Ukraine.

[Garnett Genuis, Conservative, Sherwood Park—Fort Saskatchewan, AB]

Thank you.

[The Vice-Chair, Conservative, Marty Morantz]

Thank you, Mr. Genuis.

Mr. Sarai, you have the floor for five minutes.

[Randeep Sarai, Liberal, Surrey Centre, BC]

Thank you, Mr. Chair.

First of all, I want to thank you and echo my colleagues' sentiments toward all of the panellists. You have great depth in this and have provided great insight.

I might switch gears a bit to a different perspective of asking questions.

I want to know what is Ukraine's own military capacity and level of preparedness to face a Russian aggressor. Are they prepared? What's their military size and capacity? Can somebody enlighten me? Maybe the major-general can do that.

[MGen Paul Prévost]

Mr. Chair, I'll answer broadly.

Obviously, in terms of capacity, Ukraine is much smaller than Russia. In terms of capability, they're better, and they've been getting better for a long time. They're obviously watching this space carefully. I cannot provide an assessment, a comparative between the two, but in pure size, there's obviously a big difference and in terms of capability also.

That's all I can provide as an answer at this time.

[Randeep Sarai, Liberal, Surrey Centre, BC]

Thank you. The reason I ask is I've seen a few [Inaudible—Editor] they want weapons, but they can fight, themselves. That's why I wanted to know if their ability to defend themselves is strong. I'm not asking for anything that's confidential in that regard, but that's what I was getting at.

I also want to know how many U.S. soldiers or reinforcements are in the region. Is there a strong presence along with other NATO forces in that region that can come to Ukraine's defence if need be?

[MGen Paul Prévost]

Maybe I can answer that question, Mr. Chair.

The U.S. has a presence. They have a training mission also in Ukraine and they follow similar approaches to those we're taking. They're going to continue to train with the Ukrainians and they're following the situation as well in terms of positioning their forces accordingly.

There was an announcement yesterday, and in the last week as well—it's a public news release—on how they are reinforcing the eastern flank of NATO, not necessarily to fight in Ukraine, but at least they are reinforcing their positions in Romania and Poland, as was announced yesterday from the Pentagon.

[Randeep Sarai, Liberal, Surrey Centre, BC]

This question is Ms. Hulan.

It may be in an interesting question and there may be an answer or not.

What has Russia officially stated as their reason for having 100,000 troops at the Ukrainian border?

[Heidi Hulan]

Mr. Chair, what's interesting is that Russia has not stated why they have 100,000 troops on the border with Ukraine. The Russian position is that their troop movements inside their own country are their own business.

[Randeep Sarai, Liberal, Surrey Centre, BC]

Mr. Chair, could I ask another question?

[Marty Morantz, Conservative, Charleswood—St. James—Assiniboia—Headingley, MB]

You have another minute and a half, so you're good.

[Randeep Sarai, Liberal, Surrey Centre, BC]

Perfect.

Ms. Hulan, has the Canadian government assessed the impact to date of the sanctions related to Russia? If so, what did that assessment determine?

[Heidi Hulan]

Can you hear me, Mr. Chair?

[The Vice-Chair, Conservative, Marty Morantz]

Yes, I can hear you. There is some feedback somewhere though. Maybe a microphone is open.

Please, give it a try.

[Heidi Hulan]

Thank you.

Look, our assessment is that post-Crimea sanctions have had a big impact. I would like to turn to my colleague Sandra McCardell for additional texture. This is measured in Russia's efforts to have those sanctions lifted in recent years.

Our assessment is that sanctions are always best when they are pursued jointly amongst countries with economies that have the ability to make an impact.

Sandra, I don't know if you would like to add to that.

[Sandra McCardell]

Thank you, Mr. Chair.

I think that our action, in concert with our allies—the United States, the U.K. and the European Union—of putting sanctions in place on Russia has been a very strong message from the international community.

Russia's actions are unacceptable in Crimea. They're unacceptable with respect to Mr. Navalny, and they're unacceptable with respect to Donbass as well.

[The Vice-Chair, Conservative, Marty Morantz]

Thank you.

We're up to round five. What I'd like to do is have six rounds of two and a half minutes. That will take us to roughly 5:25, and then we have a small bit of committee business to conclude after we let our witnesses go.

If that's okay with everyone, I'd like to proceed on that basis.

First up is Mr. Genuis.

You have the floor for two and a half minutes.

[Ziad Aboultaif, Conservative, Edmonton Manning, AB]

Mr. Chair, the question is mine.

[The Vice-Chair, Conservative, Marty Morantz]

I'm sorry. I was looking—

[Garnett Genuis, Conservative, Sherwood Park—Fort Saskatchewan, AB]

That's okay, I'll yield my time to Mr. Aboultaif.

[The Vice-Chair, Conservative, Marty Morantz]

I'm sorry, Mr. Aboultaif. You have the floor for two and a half minutes.

My apologies.

[Ziad Aboultaif, Conservative, Edmonton Manning, AB]

That's okay.

I'll make it easy and stay on the sanctions.

Since the illegal annexation of Crimea, Canada has sanctioned more than 440 individuals and entities, imposing asset freezes and other prohibitions. Since then, eight years after the European and the U.S. sanctions, Russians now may feel that they are sanction-proof. For example, their central bank reserve, which is what we call a rainy day fund, reached an all-time high in 2020 and 2021 to $630 billion, and their national wealth fund was worth about $180 billion by the end of that year.

What reason do we have to believe that sanctions won't produce more shrugs from Russian authorities? How can we believe that sanctions are going to be effectively applied?

[Heidi Hulan]

Mr. Chair, there is no doubt that Russia is in a stronger financial position than it was a couple of decades ago, for the reasons that have been indicated.

Sanctions can still bite, though. We live in a globalized world, and a country like Russia needs to trade. I would say that we are very actively engaged with our partners to make sure that sanctions and other economic measures would be coordinated and would be painful, and even a country with the ability to withstand significant sanctions cannot withstand significant sanctions indefinitely.

[Ziad Aboultaif, Conservative, Edmonton Manning, AB]

Sanctions bite, but can sanctions stop invasions?