Evidence of meeting #22 for Health in the 45th Parliament, 1st session. (The original version is on Parliament’s site, as are the minutes.) The winning word was point.
A video is available from Parliament.
Conservative
Dan Mazier Conservative Riding Mountain, MB
He's suspected of terrorism and he's still on this program. That is your understanding, right? That's what I'm reading. Can you understand why Canadians are really frustrated and mad about this program?
When you were doing this report and you came across these kinds of numbers and what was going on here and all these ineligible, bogus-type asylum claims, what was...? Do you think this program is totally out of control? What is your view of the program in general?
Interim Parliamentary Budget Officer, Office of the Parliamentary Budget Officer
Well, certainly something that we noted in the report is that it's clear and it's evident that the costs for this program are growing very quickly and growing more quickly than overall federal spending.
I think that's certainly something that's widely recognized, which potentially was the motivation in budget 2025 for the government to come to the table with proposals around copayment to potentially address some of the costs or slow the cost growth associated with the program.
Liberal
The Chair Liberal Hedy Fry
Thank you.
I'm going to go to the Liberals with Mr. Eyolfson for six minutes, please.
Liberal
Doug Eyolfson Liberal Winnipeg West, MB
Thank you, Chair.
Thanks to all of you for coming.
You made a reference to something that I thought was germane to this. We talked about how in budget 2025 there are these copayments that are estimated to save somewhere between $127 million to $232 million a year. You said those were not included in your projections.
Interim Parliamentary Budget Officer, Office of the Parliamentary Budget Officer
No.
Liberal
Louis Perrault Director of Policy (Costing), Office of the Parliamentary Budget Officer
It's based on the timeline and also the information we received, and it fit with the parsimonious approach we used to be able to explain the cost drivers as well as have a credible forecast.
Liberal
Doug Eyolfson Liberal Winnipeg West, MB
Thank you.
You talked about your estimate for 2030 and how much this program is expected to cost per year. There has been, in the last year, a drop of about one-third in the number of asylum seekers. Does this account for that drop or is this on the existing numbers before that drop?
Advisor-Analyst, Office of the Parliamentary Budget Officer
No, that includes that drop. Our ongoing assumption about the intake, the new entrants into the program, continues that trend and keeps the level we've seen in 2025 constant in terms of inflow.
Liberal
Doug Eyolfson Liberal Winnipeg West, MB
Would you not think that with the changes with Bill C-12, like the copayments for instance, another analysis should be done to take the effect of those copayments into account?
Director of Policy (Costing), Office of the Parliamentary Budget Officer
To definitely take in the impact of copayments and Bill C-12, that's something we could do. We just need more granular data to attack the problem.
Liberal
Doug Eyolfson Liberal Winnipeg West, MB
What would you say is the primary driver of this expenditure growth? What's the main reason that this expenditure is growing?
Advisor-Analyst, Office of the Parliamentary Budget Officer
We looked at that question from two aspects. One was in pure economic terms, called volume and price, which is the growth in beneficiaries and the growth in the costs associated with beneficiaries. It's coming from both sides, so we're expecting a growth in the number of total beneficiaries over the production horizon as there's a greater number of asylum claimants who would receive coverage from the IFHP.
In terms of cost, we also expect there to be growth there, with the growth coming closer to what we see on average for expenditures per capita for Canadians, but staying slightly elevated.
Liberal
Doug Eyolfson Liberal Winnipeg West, MB
You're basing this on assumptions of future surges in asylum claimants. Is that correct?
Advisor-Analyst, Office of the Parliamentary Budget Officer
No, we actually assume that the inflow of asylum claimants will remain at the level we've seen this year, in 2025. It's just that given the constraint of processing capacity, there's an increase in beneficiaries because there's more entry into the program than exiting from the program.
Liberal
Doug Eyolfson Liberal Winnipeg West, MB
One of the things we deal with in health care costs is the short-term costs and the long-term costs. A lot of diseases, if treated earlier, can be treated at a low cost. A lot of disease processes can be treated initially at a low cost. However, if not treated and allowed to become worse, the problems become more complicated and much more expensive to treat. Particularly, this would be a financial burden on our health care system if these people were to then become full citizens and stay.
Has there been any analysis of the potential consequences of removing these upfront costs in treatment versus the long-term costs of more expensive clinical outcomes in the future?
Advisor-Analyst, Office of the Parliamentary Budget Officer
That's not an aspect.... I think it's an interesting point.
In terms of the cost per beneficiary, we don't necessarily make assumptions, underlying, about the type of care or the types of services rendered. We really just look at historical trends and project from there.
Liberal
Doug Eyolfson Liberal Winnipeg West, MB
I just wanted to clarify. You said that you're assuming that the number of asylum seekers will remain the same.
Advisor-Analyst, Office of the Parliamentary Budget Officer
It's the number of new claimants.
Liberal
Doug Eyolfson Liberal Winnipeg West, MB
Does this take into account the changes in the processes that are going to put downward pressure on the number, as in Bill C-12, by closing loopholes and decreasing the number of potential asylum seekers?
Director of Policy (Costing), Office of the Parliamentary Budget Officer
No, it does not, but it's an analysis we can do for the committee.
Liberal
Doug Eyolfson Liberal Winnipeg West, MB
I would suggest you do that. Thank you.
I believe that's my time.
Liberal
The Chair Liberal Hedy Fry
Thank you
We now go to the Bloc Québécois and Monsieur Blanchette-Joncas for six minutes, please.
Bloc
Maxime Blanchette-Joncas Bloc Rimouski—La Matapédia, QC
Thank you very much, Madam Chair.
I commend the Parliamentary Budget Officer and his team. I thank them for being with us.
My first question is about growth and processing capacity, between 2016‑17 and 2024‑25. In Quebec, the number of IFHP users has risen from 11,900 to 108,891. I’d like to understand something.
Has the Immigration and Refugee Board of Canada’s processing capacity increased by a comparable proportion?