Evidence of meeting #22 for Health in the 45th Parliament, 1st session. (The original version is on Parliament’s site, as are the minutes.) The winning word was point.
A video is available from Parliament.
Advisor-Analyst, Office of the Parliamentary Budget Officer
I’d approach this question from two angles.
During that period, we noticed a significant increase in the capacity for processing claims. However, we still see a difference between the number of claims received and the number processed, hence the backlog.
Bloc
Maxime Blanchette-Joncas Bloc Rimouski—La Matapédia, QC
If I understand correctly, the number of beneficiaries has risen much faster than the increase in federal administrative capacity.
Is that correct?
Advisor-Analyst, Office of the Parliamentary Budget Officer
Yes. More people joined the program than left it.
Bloc
Maxime Blanchette-Joncas Bloc Rimouski—La Matapédia, QC
Now I’d like to talk about the process backlog.
Since coverage ends only when the file is finalized, can you confirm that each additional month of delay automatically results in an additional month of coverage?
Advisor-Analyst, Office of the Parliamentary Budget Officer
In effect, yes.
Bloc
Maxime Blanchette-Joncas Bloc Rimouski—La Matapédia, QC
Each additional month of delay automatically results in an additional month of costs for the IFHP.
Is that right?
Bloc
Maxime Blanchette-Joncas Bloc Rimouski—La Matapédia, QC
If the intake volumes increase without a proportional increase in processing capacity, will the effect on costs be proportional, or will it be greater?
Advisor-Analyst, Office of the Parliamentary Budget Officer
That’s an interesting question.
We could conduct additional analyses to provide you with a more detailed response, but certainly, as soon as there are more people entering the program than leaving it, costs increase.
Bloc
Maxime Blanchette-Joncas Bloc Rimouski—La Matapédia, QC
Perfect. That answers my question.
Let's talk now about the explosion in spending. Program-related expenses in Quebec have risen from about $10 million to over $200 million, a 3,000% increase—I'm rounding—over 10 years.
Is that growth related primarily to the increase in the number of beneficiaries and the longer duration of coverage?
Advisor-Analyst, Office of the Parliamentary Budget Officer
That is indeed a source of growth. We also saw an increase in the cost per beneficiary during that period.
Bloc
Maxime Blanchette-Joncas Bloc Rimouski—La Matapédia, QC
Okay.
Are there other provinces where the percentage of increase in spending was as catastrophic as 3,000% over 10 years?
Advisor-Analyst, Office of the Parliamentary Budget Officer
I can't say right now, but we'll be able to answer you once we've looked into it.
Bloc
Maxime Blanchette-Joncas Bloc Rimouski—La Matapédia, QC
Thank you. You can respond to us in writing.
You also stated that the average cost per beneficiary was rising more rapidly than what is seen within the Canadian population of the same age group. This trend could exert additional pressure, even if volumes stabilize.
Is that correct?
Advisor-Analyst, Office of the Parliamentary Budget Officer
Yes. In our analysis, it's certainly a source of growth that we've identified in the past, and our projections indicate that it will continue.
Bloc
Maxime Blanchette-Joncas Bloc Rimouski—La Matapédia, QC
In short, even with consistent volumes, budgetary pressure could continue to increase.
Is that right?
Advisor-Analyst, Office of the Parliamentary Budget Officer
Yes, in effect.
Bloc
Maxime Blanchette-Joncas Bloc Rimouski—La Matapédia, QC
Okay.
Do you have any data or projections on what this additional budgetary pressure could represent?
Advisor-Analyst, Office of the Parliamentary Budget Officer
We anticipate annual costs per beneficiary in Canada to rise about 8%.
Bloc
Maxime Blanchette-Joncas Bloc Rimouski—La Matapédia, QC
Thank you.
Earlier, you mentioned a co-payment model for beneficiaries of certain services. They will have to cover 30% of the costs for certain supplemental services.
Have you conducted a formal analysis to assess whether this could lead to a service delay for provincial plans, particularly the Régie de l'assurance maladie du Québec?
Director of Policy (Costing), Office of the Parliamentary Budget Officer
We haven't done any specific analysis for this type of service, but we could look into it.
Bloc
Maxime Blanchette-Joncas Bloc Rimouski—La Matapédia, QC
What's your hypothesis at this time?
If there are cuts somewhere, someone else will probably offer that care. Other provinces or territories may have to provide services to people who can no longer access them.
Is that right?
Director of Policy (Costing), Office of the Parliamentary Budget Officer
That’s an excellent question.
We'll pay attention to that. The change will take effect on May 1, and then we'll be able to monitor the situation closely.
Bloc
Maxime Blanchette-Joncas Bloc Rimouski—La Matapédia, QC
Okay.
From 2017 to 2024, Quebec received more asylum claims than Ontario. On average, however, we received 28% of the funding allocated under the program, and we consistently received half the funding of our neighbour, Ontario.
How do you explain this difference in the allocation of funding?
Advisor-Analyst, Office of the Parliamentary Budget Officer
As we understand it, the costs are related to billing. When an asylum claimant sees a doctor, the doctor submits a request for reimbursement under the program, and that's where the costs are calculated.
As for the difference in funding between Ontario and Quebec, we don't really have any details to provide you about what happened, but it relates mainly to billing.