Good morning, everyone. I appreciate the invitation to be here.
I'm going to cover three topics. I'm going to give a few introductory comments. I'm going to summarize some key numbers very briefly, handle questions, and then I'm just going to express a few cautions.
My training is as a demographer, with my academic research in demography primarily in the area of immigration. About four years ago I received a phone call from a Vancouver Sun reporter. He said he was doing a story on lost Canadians and asked how many were there. Some were saying there were a few hundred, some said there were millions. What I did was use public information from census data and estimated that there were about 85,000 lost Canadians living in the United States. That was several years ago. I continue to work in this area, more in the area of public service to help aid discussion. It's not a hot topic in demography, I must tell you, so it doesn't further my academic career very much.
What I do is I use census data from either the United States or Canada. These are public-use, confidential data files that many academic researchers and government agencies use. They don't have names or addresses, so there's nothing confidential about them. I try to define the groups as carefully as I can, one by one, and say, “If people born in 1947 to 1977 have the following characteristics, how many would there be in these different groups?”
I'll say a bit more about war brides. I look at women who were born in Europe, who would have been 15 years of age or older in 1945, who were not Canadian when they were born but report they married someone who was Canadian, in the military or otherwise, and who then came to Canada between 1945 and 1955. How many women fit that definition? The answer is about 25,000 women in Canada fit that kind of definition as a war bride. It doesn't mean they all have citizenship problems. It doesn't mean that some of them have even applied. So I think there's a big difference among the ones who potentially would have a problem, if they applied, and the ones who we see in counts from the government agency. But there are about 25,000 of them.
There were about 5,000 babies born in Europe after the war with a Canadian mother or father. There are about 10,000 lost Canadians in Canada. I mentioned the 85,000 in the United States. There are about 10,000 border babies--babies born in the United States with Canadian parents who are now back in Canada. Finally, there are about 75,000 babies born abroad with Canadian parents.
The estimates overall, then, are that about 115,000 Canadians are living in Canada with potential citizenship problems. Again, not all of them necessarily would have them if they applied, but it's more than a few dozen. There are about 85,000 in other countries.
Let me close with three cautions.
First, census data do not include detailed immigration history summaries. They are not the same as what you would get if you applied for a passport or citizenship card. So we don't get all the information that one would really want to make a one-to-one case. Nevertheless, the data are useful, I think, because they help us get a ballpark estimate of what the numbers might be.
Secondly, the estimates that I prepared are for selected groups in Canada and the United States. There may be other citizenship problem groups that I have not looked at. There are also probably people who have Canadian parents living in Germany, England, Australia who also face some of these issues. I don't know how many there might be.
Thirdly, the numbers are changing. The war brides, if we use Canadian census data right now, are about 83 years old, on average. They're not young. There are about 1,500 dying each year. There won't be very many of them left after 15 or 20 years. Those numbers are dropping fairly rapidly. One group is growing: there are about 1,000 babies born outside of Canada every year to Canadian parents. They are showing up. So we're adding at that end.
I'd be glad to take questions about anything I've done. Thank you.