Chair Sousa, Vice-Chairs Bezan and Savard-Tremblay, and members of the standing committee, our topic today is a timely one.
Missile threats are no longer niche or boutique problems, but certainly weapons of choice. Today’s landscape is accompanied by the advent of a new missile age, one defined by a surge in the global supply and demand for a broad and diverse spectrum of strike capabilities and the means to counter them. Thus, long-range strike and air and missile defence are the top modernization priorities for both Australia and Japan, and are the two capabilities for which Ukraine requests most for its defence.
In past decades, ballistic missile defence understandably received outsized attention, given the threat of rogue state ballistic missiles. Today, however, non-ballistic missile threats are particularly growing in salience and number. Cruise missiles fired in Ukraine far outnumber ballistic missiles. Even so-called ballistic missiles are becoming less so, inasmuch as more manoeuvrability is being introduced for less predictable trajectories.
The particular salience of the cruise missile threat should come as no surprise. We've seen it coming, as was said, for over a decade. It is, therefore, unfortunate that the air and missile defence for these kinds of threats has taken a backseat for so long, and that NORAD’s legacy capability and focus has been on other problems.
The jointly operated North Warning System has been the mainstay for providing sensor coverage for incoming threats to North America. While this architecture is critical for detecting medium- and high-altitude aerial threats, it's not as well suited for those travelling at lower altitudes.
As the Department of National Defence notes, existing “radar capabilities are becoming increasingly challenged by modern weapons technology, including advanced cruise missiles and hypersonic weapons”, because using their non-ballistic trajectories exploits the gaps in radar coverage.
In July 2022, the CSIS missile defence project put out “North America is a Region, Too”, a report on air and cruise missile defence of our continent. The title reflects the argument that air and cruise missile threats are no longer just a regional problem “over there”, but a problem closer to home.
The past perception that air and cruise missile defence of North America is unnecessary stems from the outdated assumption that air and cruise missile threats to the homeland are a lesser included set of strategic nuclear attacks deterred by the threat of retaliation. As was just said, deterring these kinds of attacks requires deterrence by denial.
In light of all this, it is gratifying to read the 2024 Canadian defence policy review's commitment to build on past investments for NORAD modernization and to explore a “more robust approach to integrated air and missile defence.”
Forward-based sensing from the high north is an especially critical asset, and it is gratifying to see the announcement in July about removing restrictions on air and missile defence.
Numerous other allies and partners are making similar pledges to address the yawning gaps in capability. The United Kingdom’s strategic defence review pledged one billion pounds. Both Japan and Australia list these, as I've said, as their top priorities.
NATO Secretary General suggested the alliance may “need five times as many systems” for air and missile defence.
The U.S. golden dome initiative is a long-overdue effort to counter this spectrum of threats. If sustained on a combined and bipartisan basis, it could become the beginning of a generational opportunity to counter them. So far, limited details about the architecture have been publicly released. When more becomes available, I expect it will be recognized as a necessary and quite tractable approach.
As the Canadian government explores the potential for improved air and missile defence capabilities, it may be worth paying particular attention to sensors. If one cannot see a threat, one cannot kill it.
The first area of improvement is, of course, the North Warning System. Canada’s investment and momentum on over-the-horizon radars is another especially important step. While OTHR may not provide fire control quality tracks, it can nevertheless provide cues.
Another area ripe for exploration is how space sensors will contribute to non-ballistic threats. I'm thinking here of air moving target indicators, AMTIs. As noted in our past reports, future architectures should consider space-based AMTI when mature. To be sure, it will not, and should not, undercut terrestrial OTHRs. Low- and slow-flying targets, with cool heat signatures, remain difficult to detect and track.
Additional investments in modernizing capabilities include air-to-air missiles, communications infrastructure, and fuel depots and runways in the high north to get after all of this.
A final topic of potential consideration might be the development of, and the thinking about, limited area defence zones for command and control, infrastructure nodes and perhaps the capital.
Working through what one wants to defend is often a timely consideration.
Thank you for the opportunity to join you today. I look forward to your questions.