Thank you, Mr. Chairman. Thank you to the committee members.
Just to provide a word on the Conference Board, we're a research organization, independent and not for profit. In fact, we're a charity by law. All the work we do in public policy and on public policy questions is driven by facts and hard evidence. We have a large team of economists. I'm an economist myself by training.
In fact, it turns out that today my training is in connection with the question at hand: I'm an energy economist by training and I started working for Natural Resources Canada back in 1990. That ties to some of the things I want to talk about.
Your question for today, as I received it, indicates that you want to hear about an assessment of policy instruments designed to de-risk adoption of clean technology in Canada's natural resources sector. We haven't written on this question in particular, but I have some reports you might be interested in looking at afterwards. I'd be glad to share these with the committee.
Let me offer two perspectives. One perspective is a macro policy perspective on development and adoption—I would put them together—of clean tech. The other is more traditional or more micro-financial perspective on the development and adoption of clean tech.
On the macro side, where my background is—I find it interesting to bring it back—25 years ago, when I started in March 1990, negotiations for the Rio summit were starting. If you remember, the goal at that time was stabilizing emissions at 1990 levels by the year 2000. Do you remember that?
Others might remember more closely Kyoto, and then the recent Paris agreement. There was Copenhagen in between.
You all know that we didn't meet Rio and we didn't meet Kyoto, and now we're looking at “80 by '50”, to put things in perspective a little bit.
I left this file in 1997 and have just come back to it in the last couple of years. I must say there has been a lot of progress. One thing we were talking about back then was that clean tech was the ace in the back pocket. The problem was that we didn't know where to find it.
It turns out that technology has played a huge role. So have standards and regulation. You should look at the car industry, for example, with huge progress on the technology front, offset by consumer preferences for bigger engines and different kinds of cars. In terms of energy efficiency, though, there has been a lot of improvement in buildings, appliances, etc.—you name it. There has been a lot of progress on many fronts.
That said, nothing has happened even close to meeting what you would consider maybe a conservative target, such as the one in 1990, the Rio one.
What we're talking about with “80 by '50” is a paradigm shift altogether. We're really redefining the industrial structure of this country. We haven't really come to grips collectively, I think, with the implications of it. In fact, the Conference Board has a public conference in a month about it; we're looking at the economic and social implications of moving to “80 by '50”.
It turns out that we're using work from McGill, the David Suzuki Foundation, and the Canadian Academy of Engineering, which has defined a technical path forward to meet “80 by '50”. In fact, the best they could achieve on the technical pathways was a 70% reduction in emissions by 2050, and it brings in assumptions that are politically unfeasible and in fact, given the timelines, not doable. What you learn when you go through all the details is that we don't know how to get there yet.
One major element that comes out systematically is around greening the grid, the electricity grid. Hydro, of course, is fundamental in that process, and nuclear comes in as really big, particularly in Alberta and Saskatchewan in these scenarios, and in Nova Scotia. This is work that is coming out, I think, in time to inform the committee. I think it would be really useful to consider it when we produce it.
There are four things I see from what has happened since the conversations in Rio, up to now.
Some things have been missing from the macro side, and the first one is policy certainty about where we're going collectively. Even if we ratified Rio...Jean Chrétien ratified Kyoto, and then Stephen Harper over the years managed that whole file totally differently. The outcome is the same. Overall we've never really had political certainty.
Do the Paris agreement and the political ambition mean policy certainty? I'm still unsure. If you want to get there, if you are serious about it, this is the golden principle.
The second thing is that relative prices matter and incentives matter. Over the years clean tech solutions would be here if they were financially viable. They are not, because implicitly there is an environmental cost associated with producing energy from carbon-emitting sources. If you produce with oil, gas, or coal, there is an environmental footprint that is not priced into the cost of producing energy from these sources.
This is the reason there are subsidies for clean tech. It's to make up for that exclusion. This is trying to play with the market. It's really hard to tune things right. First of all, pricing that environmental cost through a carbon tax is a core principle that is also really important to respect.
Standards and regulations remain. Given the level of the ambition, they are still part of the mix. We've been employing them, but given the scale, I think we're going to have to rethink the framework in which we set standards and regulations and start looking at the implications of setting them to the levels needed to reach the target.
Finally—and this ties to the next point I want to make about that clean tech ace that is hidden somewhere in our back pocket—we need to foster innovation in a way that we've never done before, which ties directly to the mandate of the committee, of course. If the pre-conditions are not in place, however, everything else falls apart.
The second point I want to make here is about the way the question is phrased, which is around policy instruments designed to de-risk the “adoption”. I'm not sure whether it's by design that the question was specifically pointed at adoption, but I think you have to think about development in that process. There is a huge economic development strategy tied to it. Development and adoption need to go hand in hand, I would argue.
The reason is that if you can figure out the process for development and adoption—and I have some suggestions here—you create a market for new technology. You start de-risking the commercialization of new ideas and you can start thinking about the scale. Again, there are really innovative tools to get to that, which I will mention here.
First of all, as part of it, the financial ROI calculation plays a part in the context in which you have that carbon tax.
The second thing is that the adoption needs to be integrated with clean development strategy, as I mentioned. Otherwise, even if we have some support through SR and ED and other tools and from other credit agencies in Canada—EDC, BDC, etc., and all the regional or provincial authorities that are also providing support—what we are finding is that we're really pushing the implementation of existing solutions when they get bigger, solutions that we typically import. They are not tailor-made for Canadian needs, and I would argue that we have particular challenges.
Among all developed economies, having an energy industry that is so strong, so central to Canada's economy, is unique. The usage of energy that goes with it is unique, and our geography, with all the implications associated with it, is also unique. To look at Canadian-made solutions and start articulating an economic development strategy that ties solutions to our current reality is much more effective.
The funding—the money available—exists. There are many sources. You know all these, and I've mentioned a couple. The only point I'd like to make on that is that there is a total lack of coordination right now. Coordination and intermediaries form a central element of the equation that right now is missing, to bring the scale of commercializing ideas to the level we need.
The final point I'd like to make is around the specific things we can do to start changing the way we've been doing things over the years.
One thing that government has total control over is procurement. There's a whole agenda around procurement innovation and health innovation procurement that applies really well for infrastructure development or for what we're talking about today. It means starting to use the procurement tool as a way to drive solutions to problems, rather than pre-crafting solutions and having minimizing costs as the ultimate standard that we comply with.
I'd like to talk about this, if I may, during the Q and A, if you're interested in it. We've done some work in this area at the Conference Board. It's a tool that's been applied within government to trigger some fundamental change in how partnerships are developed among private sector participants, and also how P3s—private-public partnerships—can evolve.