Mr. Speaker, I think people realize I was referring to the budget proposals of the Reform Party. As I was saying, they forgot to include a huge prison construction program which would probably be the only job creation component of their party's platform.
Of course we are concerned. I think we have reason to be, and we share their concerns as we share those of many Canadians.
We must understand that, at present, the Canadian economy is operating at about 92 per cent of its potential without inflation. This means that there is room for another 8 per cent increase in production without causing any increase in inflation in Canada. How did that come about? You must know where you are coming from to know where you are going. It is simple: the 1980s saw two major recessions aimed at breaking the cycle of inflation. Because of a total lack of co-operation between the various regions and economic agents in Canada, the rate of inflation was allowed to rise during the 1970s and into the early 1980s, when it averaged 12 per cent. It was just plain insane. The Bank of Canada used the big stick because people capable of managing the Canadian economy in co-operation, like in Germany and several other countries, could not be found in this place. That is why the big stick of interest rates had to be used.
So, interest rates skyrocketed and precipitated a major recession, which in turn caused unemployment to increase sharply and, of course, inflation to fall from an average of 12 per cent to 5 per cent. Economic recovery was under way, but we never recovered from the jobs lost. In 1989, the Bank of Canada decided once again to aim for zero-inflation, at a time when the average rate of inflation was about 5 per cent. It did meet its target, but at what price? By jacking up interest rates so as to stifle the economy in Quebec and Canada. So much so that our production rate fell down to 90 per cent. It fell so drastically that for the next three years, the economy grew only marginally. There was no real economic recovery in Canada while the United States had already recovered.
So, this is a duly-considered policy, because of the lack of co-operation in this country. This must be pointed out, even though it is not at the forefront any more, now that inflation has been curbed for a little while, but this inability to co-operate, to work in co-operation in this country is still a problem.
Think back to the 1980s when the Economic Council of Canada and other agencies made it clear economic co-operation was urgently needed in order to curb inflation. As some of you may remember, at the beginning of his mandate, Brian Mulroney organized a great Canadian forum to initiate a consultation process, which was a failure, but achieved his inflation-fighting goals by using the stick approach. Ontario was very prosperous at the time but it let its spending get out of control and now finds itself saddled with an annual deficit of $10 billion. We were never able to make people listen to reason.
Part of the problem is that we have to realize our economic potential as soon as possible without causing inflation. That is why we need economic growth. We see that, in the last year, government revenue went up by between 7 per cent and 8 per cent because more people are working and therefore paying more taxes. UI benefits went down not only because of the cuts but also because more people are working. We still have a way to go before realizing our full potential.
On the other hand, the actions taken by the Bank of Canada and the stick approach that was used have made the Canadian dollar very volatile. Our dollar went from 69 cents to 87 cents, then back to 70 cents. We are playing with foreign investors' nerves by allowing the value of our currency to fluctuate by 25 per cent. This does not make any sense. We must hold economic consultations so that these fluctuations can be avoided.
If Canada's interest rates are what they are today, it is partly because of the debt, but also because confidence in the Canadian dollar has been shaken by our inflation-fighting policy.
I am not saying that it would have been better not to do anything about inflation. The problem is that we must use different methods to fight it. Many people say that we are living above our means. This is partly true. There is a very simple way to find out: one only has to look at our balance of international
payments. And now, with our dollar at 70 cents, we have restored that balance, to a great extent.
The challenge for investors and Canadians alike is to determine if we can hold on long enough. Our tourism deficit has gone down, and this year we will have a very substantial trade surplus of $17 billion, but we still have a cumulative debt on which we pay about $30 billion annually in interest payments to foreign investors.
Even if we start living within our means, compared with other countries, we have to keep paying, because at one time we spent more than we could afford, and now we are stuck with interest payments we have to pay abroad. This situation has to be turned around as well.
What makes people worried? Why was Moody's worried last week, for instance? Did Moody's say: Listen, social programs are too expensive? Not at all. Moody's said: Structural reorganization is necessary. For instance, there are practically no more fishermen left, but the Department of Fisheries and Oceans still has the same number of employees. The department has more employees that we have cod. This does not make sense.
The same thing happened at the Department of Energy, Mines and Resources. The national energy policy was abolished in the early eighties, but they kept the same number of employees they had when they were still managing this energy policy.
The federal government has increased its involvement in a wide range of sectors-and not only in areas under provincial jurisdiction-to the extent that it is no longer economically feasible. We need a major reorganization, and of course we are looking forward to the budget.
Relations with the provinces are a problem, not only because structures are unwieldy but because they are inefficient in some areas. Years ago we came to the conclusion that manpower training was essential, and in this particular area there was no agreement at all between the federal government and the provinces-and not just Quebec-and there is no way we can act effectively.
Of course in Quebec the situation is even worse. Why? For the simple reason that Quebec was Canada's first industrial heartland. This means we had more mature industries in the railway sector, shipbuilding, and so forth, than in other provinces. When these industries started shrinking, new industries came in. There was a very substantial restructuring of our economy, but we did not have manpower training to ease the transition for a machinist from the railway sector to the aeronautics industry. There were no resources to provide for that transition. The situation was worse in Quebec for the very simple reason that we had a much larger share of Canada's old economy.
The problem is now becoming acute in Ontario, because while Quebec's economy has largely been restructured, Ontario has a problem with its own mature and very mature industries like the automobile industry, where like recovery is temporary, and the steel industry. They now have to cope with problems that Quebec experienced 10, 15, or 20 years ago, problems we were never able to solve with the help of the federal government.
Reorganization is needed, and here I am speaking from the Canadian, the federalist point of view. I am not talking about being capable of developing our aspirations as a society. I talked about it this week in the debate on the Young Offenders Act, when referring to the fact that Quebec's perspective was entirely different from that of the present Minister of Justice. I could have elaborated on this, but there is a big problem, even if we wanted to stay in Canada.