Evidence of meeting #26 for Fisheries and Oceans in the 45th Parliament, 1st session. (The original version is on Parliament’s site, as are the minutes.) The winning word was scientific.
A recording is available from Parliament.
Regional Director General, Gulf Region, Department of Fisheries and Oceans
Indeed, climate change is a serious consideration that has an impact.
I'll turn to my colleague Mr. Vigneault, who may have additional scientific perspectives to give in answer to your question.
Director General, Ecosystem Science Directorate, Department of Fisheries and Oceans
Thank you.
All pelagic species are very sensitive to climate change impacts. The Gulf of St. Lawrence, and the southern Gulf of St. Lawrence in particular, has seen warming water temperatures, which affect the ecosystem.
In the case of the Atlantic mackerel, we still think it is important for the recovery of the stock. We see a significant beneficial impact from reducing the fishing effort in the recovery, but in addition to that, they're impacted by climate change. Often it's the timing of when the larvae of the Atlantic mackerel hatch and the availability of their prey that are really critical. In a changing climate, it could be offset. You could have the hatching of eggs without suitable prey available at that time of the year because of a mismatch, and that could cause difficulty for the stock.
For herring, we think it's primarily driven by environmental conditions, similar to what I've described as a mismatch, for example, between when the larvae hatch from the eggs and the availability of prey to sustain their growth.
Liberal
Ernie Klassen Liberal South Surrey—White Rock, BC
Thank you.
Mr. Williams, in the past, when the population was healthy, one out of 10 mackerel was older than seven years. Now it's only one out of 100. Older fish lay more eggs, so having fewer of them means that fewer young fish are born. It takes six to seven years for young fish to grow old enough to help rebuild the population. They used to lay seven times more eggs than they do now.
Fish harvesters are seeing lots of mackerel on the water. Are those fish old enough to reproduce? How would you compare the number of large fish today to those in 2010?
Director General, Ecosystem Science Directorate, Department of Fisheries and Oceans
We still see that the mackerel population is, as we call it, truncated, because we see much smaller and much younger fish than we have in the past.
Since 2011, it's been rare to have fish older than seven years old, and indeed, while the fish are mature at two to three years and can live for over 15 years, it's really the larger fish that produce the most eggs and are the most significant for reproduction. We still see right now that there's a depletion in those larger fish in the Gulf of St. Lawrence ecosystem. That's a subject of ongoing research.
We will be starting a project, in collaboration with industry, to sample fish across Newfoundland, not just to see their size but also to look in detail at their maturity and their capacity to produce eggs and contribute to the reproduction of the species.
Liberal
Ernie Klassen Liberal South Surrey—White Rock, BC
Can you tell us more about the age breakdown for current mackerel stock signs?
Director General, Ecosystem Science Directorate, Department of Fisheries and Oceans
Right now, as I mentioned, we see that the majority of the fish are smaller at seven years old. In the last assessment, we saw that the fish were smaller than their average size in the past. It's still part of the natural variation that we've observed for the population, but in the most recent stock assessment, not only were the fish younger than they have been in the healthier population state in the past, prior to 2011, but the fish were getting smaller.
Liberal
The Chair Liberal Patrick Weiler
Thank you very much, Mr. Klassen.
We'll go to Mr. Blanchette‑Joncas now for two and a half minutes.
Bloc
Maxime Blanchette-Joncas Bloc Rimouski—La Matapédia, QC
Thank you, Mr. Chair.
Ms. Gaudet, as part of the comprehensive spending review, has the department analyzed the impact on its scientific capacity if positions were to be eliminated or affected?
Regional Director General, Gulf Region, Department of Fisheries and Oceans
Thank you very much for the question. I'm going to ask my colleague Mr. Williams to answer.
Director General, Ecosystem Science Directorate, Department of Fisheries and Oceans
Thank you.
It would be easier for us to provide you with the written answer that you requested because we don't have it, but I can to reassure you—
Bloc
Maxime Blanchette-Joncas Bloc Rimouski—La Matapédia, QC
I'm going to give you two suggestions for an answer, Mr. Vigneault: Is it yes or no?
Director General, Ecosystem Science Directorate, Department of Fisheries and Oceans
Yes, we can provide—
Bloc
Director General, Ecosystem Science Directorate, Department of Fisheries and Oceans
Absolutely, we have done an analysis. We looked at that, as I said earlier, to ensure that there would be no impact on decision-making for fish stocks.
Bloc
Maxime Blanchette-Joncas Bloc Rimouski—La Matapédia, QC
Will you send the full analysis to the committee?
Director General, Ecosystem Science Directorate, Department of Fisheries and Oceans
We'll look at what documents we can send you. I can tell you right now that these decisions were made jointly for all the regions.
Bloc
Maxime Blanchette-Joncas Bloc Rimouski—La Matapédia, QC
You have to tell us, Mr. Vigneault. If not, we will table a motion to force you to make that analysis public. Thank you.
Ms. Gaudet, I'll come back to you. If scientific positions are cut, will certain analyses have to be entrusted to outside organizations?
Regional Director General, Gulf Region, Department of Fisheries and Oceans
Once again, since the question pertains to the management of the department's science program, I will ask my colleague Mr. Vigneault to answer.
Director General, Ecosystem Science Directorate, Department of Fisheries and Oceans
Providing data by contract or otherwise is not part of the plans.
What I said earlier is that, for science, it's always important to collaborate with outside organizations, such as universities and industry. That was the case even before the cuts. It helps provide a different perspective for the interpretation of the data. It helps us increase our capacity to gather data. This is something we will continue doing in the future.
Bloc
Maxime Blanchette-Joncas Bloc Rimouski—La Matapédia, QC
Has the department assessed the risk of becoming more dependent on outside expertise?
Director General, Ecosystem Science Directorate, Department of Fisheries and Oceans
As I said earlier, we are not more dependent on outside expertise. We made sure that we had the scientific capacity to—
Bloc
Maxime Blanchette-Joncas Bloc Rimouski—La Matapédia, QC
My question is whether you assessed it, Mr. Vigneault.
Director General, Ecosystem Science Directorate, Department of Fisheries and Oceans
Yes, we looked at that in detail. We made sure—
Bloc
Maxime Blanchette-Joncas Bloc Rimouski—La Matapédia, QC
Please send us that answer in writing.
Can the department guarantee that the frequency and quality of scientific advice on mackerel and herring won't be affected by the current spending review?
Director General, Ecosystem Science Directorate, Department of Fisheries and Oceans
Absolutely, they will not be affected. In fact, we have put in additional resources, as we said earlier. We're currently conducting analyses that we hadn't planned to do and we've accelerated those analyses to provide for informed decision-making.