Human Resources Committee on Nov. 4th, 2025

[Rosemarie Falk, Conservative, Battlefords—Lloydminster—Meadow Lake, SK]

Thank you very much, Chair.

Thank you to the witnesses for being here and for sharing their knowledge on this topic.

Professor Fortin, I'll start with you.

You mentioned, in a previous round of questions, that the government didn't anticipate the effects of their immigration policy. I'm wondering how that can be. Would the government not consult with employers and with industry where the labour gaps are? I don't understand how we can have such a massive side effect of a policy, and the government did not anticipate that.

[Pierre Fortin]

It's hard to go back to 2016 to figure out where this policy came from, but it seems that the government was heavily influenced by the report of its Advisory Council on Economic Growth, which said that, if we opened the door to immigration, we would have much faster economic growth, GDP would increase faster, as would GDP per capita, and Canada's international stature would improve. We thought that Canada's ambassador to China, when he stood in front of Mr. Xi, would look more serious than if he represented a small country with only 30 million inhabitants.

However, the analysis behind the Advisory Council on Economic Growth in 2016 was flat out wrong. Unfortunately, it was poorly thought out, economically speaking. More or less from 2016 onwards, the government played a bit of a sorcerer's apprentice and caused an unprecedented explosion in migration. It was temporarily halted by the pandemic, but it continued unabated after 2021, which led to the harmful consequences we know about.

The former prime minister himself, Mr. Trudeau, said that this immigration policy had become unsustainable. What's unfortunate is that this became apparent much too late, once a great deal of damage had been done.

[Rosemarie Falk, Conservative, Battlefords—Lloydminster—Meadow Lake, SK]

Thank you very much.

Basically, being short-sighted in their policy has had these detrimental effects.

I want to note that Canada is in a housing crisis. We have this situation where people can't get homes. They can't afford homes, if there were some on the market for them to buy. I would even say, just with some of the numbers and the stats that we're hearing, I think we're on the cusp of a crisis with food insecurity, with families not being able to put food on the tables in their homes.

I'm wondering if these immigration policies and these levels have added to this demand for housing and services. How has that also impacted young Canadians' access to affordable housing and to stable jobs? If we're not able to get a stable job, then we cannot afford a house. How has this affected one another?

[Pierre Fortin]

The answer to this question is yes. One plus one is equal to two. I've looked at the numbers in my own province, Quebec, and I've been able to estimate how many more people in the province of Quebec have been added to the total population relative to what the population would have been if the rate of immigration before 2016 had continued unchanged.

The answer is that from 2022 to 2025, the population of Quebec has increased, due to this immigration policy, by 500,000. Mind you, 500,000 people suddenly in a province like that means something for the housing market. Of course, those guys have to be able to find a place to sleep at night.

Yes, of course, the migratory explosion has had this huge consequence on the housing market. There's no doubt about this. It's just a matter of being able to add one plus one.

[Rosemarie Falk, Conservative, Battlefords—Lloydminster—Meadow Lake, SK]

Thank you.

[The Chair, Liberal, Bobby Morrissey]

Thank you, Mrs. Falk.

Ms. Desrochers, you have the floor for five minutes.

[Caroline Desrochers, Liberal, Trois-Rivières, QC]

Thank you very much, Mr. Chair.

I want to start by thanking the witnesses for participating in this study.

Mr. Fortin, I understand what you said about how we approached immigration policies in 2016. I would just like to remind the committee, for the record, that the policies we put in place were, for the most part, a continuation of the policies of the previous government, the Harper government, which focused heavily on economic growth as a solution to Canada's aging and declining population. This is an issue that we continue to face. In 2014, the Harper government even launched an international education strategy to double the number of foreign students. So the 2016 analysis you're referring to continued in the same direction.

Afterwards, we realized that we may have to go about it in a different way. That is why, in January 2024, we capped the number of new international students and, in August, we limited the number of new temporary foreign workers. We've also announced significant reductions in immigration levels. More announcements will be made on this in the coming days. In short, we're working on it.

In all the conversations we've had recently, there seemed to be only one youth unemployment rate. That's not moving us forward, as there seem to be other factors at play. You talked about temporary residents and the fact that there aren't as many jobs for young people who don't have a lot of experience. Other witnesses have told us that employers prefer to hire people with experience.

As an economist, when you look at the employment data, do you see a better way to determine youth unemployment rates that could help us find solutions that are a little more targeted?

[Pierre Fortin]

Your analysis of the situation is absolutely correct. It is true that the 2016 policy generated by the federal government's Advisory Council on Economic Growth was a continuation of the previous policy, but it amplified it considerably. It's also true that there was a change of direction starting in 2024, after the important announcement made by Mr. Miller that mistakes may have been made and that new entries should be moderated in the future. We like immigrants, of course, but we can't take in more than a certain number at a time.

Now, what are the consequences? It is difficult to distinguish the effects of temporary immigration on the labour market from those of permanent immigration. It is very difficult to properly measure the effects in the case of temporary immigration, first of all because Statistics Canada's data is not yet up to date, as the agency itself acknowledges. The people at Statistics Canada are competent and are working hard to get there, but the work isn't done yet. Second of all, there has been a significant increase in illegal immigration to Canada. Last year, Mr. Miller said that there were between 10% and 20% more temporary immigrants than the estimated number.

You don't need a Ph.D. in economics to understand that, if you double the number of people simultaneously looking for work in a situation where the economy is slowing, the unemployment rate will increase for all those people. So we have a higher unemployment rate for both immigrants and young people, who are competing.

In addition, employers often prefer to hire immigrants, as long as they already have work experience in Canada. They also figure that immigrants have a family to support, for example. So when a young person who doesn't yet have a family joins the labour market, even if they have some training, they may be left out.

[Caroline Desrochers, Liberal, Trois-Rivières, QC]

Thank you very much, Mr. Fortin.

[The Chair, Liberal, Bobby Morrissey]

Thank you, Ms. Desrochers.

Mrs. Gill, you have the floor for two and a half minutes.

[Marilène Gill, Bloc, Côte-Nord—Kawawachikamach—Nitassinan, QC]

Thank you, Mr. Chair.

I got a head start earlier when I announced the subject of my next question. Could the witnesses now provide us with details on the issue of offshoring, perhaps by telling us about entry-level positions that are disappearing, unemployment rates and prospects for young people, for example?

[Pierre Fortin]

In terms of offshoring, I assume you are talking about manufacturing companies here that would set up shop elsewhere. If we take an example from your region, it could be a company in Sept-Îles that decides to go to Chillicothe, Ohio, rather than staying in Sept-Îles—

[Marilène Gill, Bloc, Côte-Nord—Kawawachikamach—Nitassinan, QC]

If I may, it could also be telecommunications companies. I'm not necessarily talking about companies that are physically here.

[Pierre Fortin]

It could be companies in the service sector.

In any sector of the economy, the problem right now is obviously the American policy, to the extent that we can call it that. As a result of the U.S. President's actions, our manufacturing exports to the United States are facing increasing tariffs. It's not the end of the world yet, but it could be in a few years. In any case, we'll see. Of course, if a company that exports to the United States is charged a tariff of 5%, 10%, 20% or 25% more than before, it is obvious that it will eventually consider whether its next investment will be in the United States rather than in Canada. That's a very dangerous consequence for the Canadian economy right now. Whether in business or in politics, everyone is fully aware of this, including you.

You also have to understand that, for the long term, what you said earlier is absolutely right. It's not just the manufacturing sector; it's also the service sector. One third of all jobs in Canada were in manufacturing 50 or 60 years ago. Now it's only 10%.

It's important to keep an eye on that in the service sector, as well.

[The Chair, Liberal, Bobby Morrissey]

Thank you, Mrs. Gill and Mr. Fortin.

Mr. Genuis, you have five minutes.

[Garnett Genuis, Conservative, Sherwood Park—Fort Saskatchewan, AB]

Mr. Fortin, you said in response to my colleague that the reason the government screwed up immigration so badly, contributing to very high youth unemployment, was that they relied on the advice of their economic advisory council, the very bad advice in terms of the impact that immigration would have on youth unemployment.

I just want you to clarify. Was the council you're referring to the one led by Dominic Barton, who was at the time a managing partner at McKinsey, and that relied on so-called pro bono analysis by McKinsey?

[Pierre Fortin]

Yes, that's exactly right. The main problem these people had was that they were unable to distinguish between growing and becoming wealthier. An economy that grows doesn't necessarily become wealthier. Over the past few years, Canada has grown its economy significantly. Of course, more people at work equals a bigger gross domestic product. In contrast, Canada's GDP per capita has declined. Why? It's because this policy has encouraged many businesses to recruit cheap labour.

If you look at some of the studies that have been done by Statistics Canada or the Bank of Canada, they show that there's been a shift toward cheap labour in Canada.

[Garnett Genuis, Conservative, Sherwood Park—Fort Saskatchewan, AB]

Yes. Thank you.

I'll just add to that. It may be an issue of these high-priced analysts not understanding, but it may also be a case of just different interests. We've been critical of this shameful merging of Liberal government power with private corporate interests. The fact is, McKinsey has all kinds of other clients: clients who may well have benefited financially as a result of the policy direction that was taken by the government even while it was causing high youth unemployment.

I'll turn it over to Mr. Reynolds for the balance of the time.

[Colin Reynolds, Conservative, Elmwood—Transcona, MB]

Thank you, Mr. Chair.

Thank you, witnesses, for coming today.

When I got out of high school, my first job was at a printing company packing boxes. There were some opportunities for growth there as I worked for that company. They trained me, and I eventually moved on to run one of their printing presses.

My question is for Ms. Bednar.

Do you see a gap between the types of jobs that youth are looking for and the types of jobs that are available to them?

[Vasiliki Bednar]

Anecdotally, yes, in the sense that I spent five years before this job at a university supporting graduate students as they prepared to take on something new.

I don't know that it's something we've necessarily seen directly in the data, but I take your point that sometimes there are jobs available that may be a mismatch or seem out of alignment in terms of how young people want to carve out their career. We've heard that before from groups of young people, that they're able and willing to work, and in their job search, what isn't satisfying.... They can find something. They can place themselves somewhere, but those experiences aren't informative in terms of building the skills they want or exposing them to the kind of career they're hoping for.

[Colin Reynolds, Conservative, Elmwood—Transcona, MB]

In your studies and in your experience, are you seeing any industries that do have employment available? Where are there jobs?

[Vasiliki Bednar]

Historically, I think, when we've looked across Canada, economics 101 would look at certain geographies where, if there are vacancies, why it is that young people aren't flooding that area to take up those opportunities. The reality is that, for young people, staying closer to communities where they are as they start to bridge out and build their career is what feels more normal and natural. That is why we suggest that opportunity for more equitable, randomized matching for some positions.

We've seen pilots of this in the U.S. on a case-by-case basis with employers who have set a threshold. In one instance, a simple fast food restaurant chain said, “As long as you have a high school degree or equivalent, we believe that you meet our threshold. We will take in all these applications over a period of time, and we will randomly select and invite you to come work with us. We believe we can train you. We believe you can do this work, if you have this academic credential.” It was much more satisfying for the applicants because, when they didn't receive an interview or they didn't hear back, they had a different appreciation for, again, the volume and the interest versus feeling like they were somehow deficient. They question what was wrong with their cover letter, if there was a different sentence they needed or if the format was incorrect.

No, it's not really about that formatting or tailoring. There's just the reality of supply and demand.

[The Chair, Liberal, Bobby Morrissey]

Thank you, Mr. Reynolds.

I will go to Ms. Fancy for five minutes to conclude this first hour.

[Jessica Fancy-Landry, Liberal, South Shore—St. Margarets, NS]

Thank you, Chair.

Thank you, witnesses, for being here today.

Within my five-minute round, I would like to talk about solutions. I believe that's the whole purpose of our report: This is how we got here, and let's start looking at solutions.

In reading some of your bios, I was drawn to you, Ms. Tiessen, in regard to your highlighting this morning, in your speech, stable work pathways, access to training and strengthening employment standards. That spoke to me as a former educator trying to get youth their first job and training.

I have three different questions for you today.

The first one is about the precarious work in seasonal economies. I live in Nova Scotia. In regions like mine, South Shore—St. Margarets, where youth employment is often very seasonal and part time, especially in terms of tourism or service sectors. Based on some of your research, what policy measures do you think would best help support young people in transitioning from seasonal work to more stable, year-round employment as they get older?

[Kaylie Tiessen]

That's definitely a million dollar question.

One thing that we definitely need to be thinking about is, if someone is in seasonal employment and they want to move into a more stable job, what the process is and what systems underpin that transition. Do they need to go back to school? If they are trying to support a family, how are they going to go back to school? Perhaps we need to look at improving our employment insurance system to support people as they are training for additional skills to move into a new job. That's one piece of the puzzle.

A seasonal worker may not qualify for employment insurance because they don't have enough hours. If you're trying to move from one job to another after your seasonal work has been completed, you might have to move very quickly to try to find different work if you don't qualify for employment insurance in order to do that training and take the time you need in order to find the job that is the right match.