Evidence of meeting #62 for National Defence in the 42nd Parliament, 1st Session. (The original version is on Parliament’s site, as are the minutes.) The winning word was ukraine.

A recording is available from Parliament.

On the agenda

MPs speaking

Also speaking

Ihor Kozak  As an Individual
Christian Leuprecht  Professor, Department of Political Science, Royal Military College of Canada, As an Individual
Matt Schroeder  Senior Researcher, Small Arms Survey, As an Individual
Jill Sinclair  Canadian representative, Ukrainian Defence Reform Advisory Board, Department of National Defence

4:35 p.m.

Liberal

The Chair Liberal Stephen Fuhr

Two seconds or less? Fine.

Someone—

4:35 p.m.

As an Individual

Ihor Kozak

Yes, absolutely it would destabilize.

Ukraine is right in the heart of Europe, the crossroads of civilizations. It's the frontier of the European Union and NATO, and therefore a collapse of Ukraine—as Mr. Putin would like to see, a failed state—would mean all kinds of issues.

I'm out of time here, but I could continue listing all the negative impacts it would have on Ukraine, Europe, and the entire free world. I think it's in Canada's and NATO's best interests to ensure that this doesn't happen—for Ukrainian interests, but I keep emphasizing, for our own interests as well.

4:35 p.m.

Professor, Department of Political Science, Royal Military College of Canada, As an Individual

Dr. Christian Leuprecht

Can I give you two quick points?

One is that small arms are already showing up in Europe from the conflict in Ukraine, especially in the weapons markets in Belgium, and are being used by people who we consider as terrorists. So there would be the proliferation of small arms, if we had that sort of collapse.

The other is the proliferation of dual-use nuclear weapons technology. We already know that liquid fuel rocket engines from a company in Ukraine are very likely finding their way to North Korea, because there's only one company in the world that makes the engines that are projecting some of the missiles of the North Korean regime.

If we want to avoid that, we want to avoid the collapse of Ukraine, but we also need to make sure that the Ukrainian government plays by the rules. It says it knows nothing about this, but I think this is something on which Canada needs to press Ukraine much harder. We can't have people indirectly having dual-use technology, having it show up in North Korea.

4:40 p.m.

Liberal

The Chair Liberal Stephen Fuhr

The last question for this panel goes to Mr. Robillard.

4:40 p.m.

Liberal

Yves Robillard Liberal Marc-Aurèle-Fortin, QC

Thank you, Mr. Chair.

My questions are for Mr. Leuprecht.

What are Russia's main interests in the Donbass region? How large a role do demographics and national identity play? What is Russia's long-term objective for the Donbass region? To what extent is Russia's intervention in the Donbass region part of a broader ambition to expand its territory?

4:40 p.m.

Professor, Department of Political Science, Royal Military College of Canada, As an Individual

Dr. Christian Leuprecht

Every day, 5,000 Slavs are added to the Russian population of this region. As a result of demographic decline, the Russians are worried about the decline of the Slavic identity. I think this plays an important role in the region's demographic strategy and in Russia's identification with the region.

Strategically, Russia will try to control the region, either explicitly or implicitly, in order to prevent Ukraine from joining NATO. Earlier I mentioned the Russians' strategic reasons, both historical and current. The two sides are equal as regards the Donbass region, which is at the heart of the conflict.

4:40 p.m.

Liberal

Yves Robillard Liberal Marc-Aurèle-Fortin, QC

My next question will be for Mr. Schroeder.

What is the status of the border between Ukraine and Russia? Is it porous? How is it so?

4:40 p.m.

Senior Researcher, Small Arms Survey, As an Individual

Matt Schroeder

That question is extremely hard to answer, in part because of the lack of data, so I'm going to take a pass on that one because I feel I cannot answer it competently.

4:40 p.m.

As an Individual

Ihor Kozak

I can answer the question, sir, if you want.

If you look at the occupied territories—and I wish I had my map here—a significant portion of the Ukrainian territory, or the border that used to be the Ukrainian border with Russia, right now is not controlled by Ukrainian forces at all. It is under the control of the Russian forces and the Russian proxy forces.

To answer your question, no, it is not porous; it is completely open. Equipment, troops, FSB agents, or whoever, are being moved freely back and forth between the occupied territories and Russia. Ukraine has no control over those border lengths in the occupied regions whatsoever.

4:40 p.m.

Liberal

The Chair Liberal Stephen Fuhr

Thank you, gentlemen, for appearing today.

This is obviously a very important conversation. It also helps to quell the misinformation, disinformation, and fake news we're hearing from the Russian side of this discussion or on the Internet and TV. It's hopefully giving us a more informed view of what's actually happening in the region versus what is being told to the public through various means, so it's important. It will also help this committee make very informed recommendations moving forward, as we finalize our report and make recommendations to the Government of Canada. Those will be debated, but this helps us get to where we need to go.

Thank you very much.

I will suspend for just two minutes, to say our goodbyes and welcome our next panel.

4:45 p.m.

Liberal

The Chair Liberal Stephen Fuhr

I'd like to welcome Jill Sinclair, Canadian representative on the Ukrainian Defence Reform Advisory Board.

Thank you very much for taking the time to appear today. I would like to give you the floor for your opening remarks.

October 18th, 2017 / 4:45 p.m.

Jill Sinclair Canadian representative, Ukrainian Defence Reform Advisory Board, Department of National Defence

Mr. Chairman and committee members, thank you for the invitation to appear before you today. I was very sorry to have missed you during your recent visit to the region, but I understand you had a terrific series of engagements. I've heard a little of it here, and I am looking forward to discussing your impressions and of course addressing any questions you have.

I'll keep my introductory comments brief.

As you know, I work with Ukraine as a member of the Defence Reform Advisory Board, or DRAB. This board was created about a year ago. It is an initiative by the Ukrainian minister of defence, General Stepan Poltorak, to implement an ambitious program of reform.

The minister asked six countries to appoint high-level experts to serve on a small advisory board, which would give advice to him, the chief of the general staff, senior Ukrainian government officials, and the members of the Verkhovna Rada, in order to help Ukraine in its efforts to implement reforms and live up to Euro-Atlantic standards and principles.

Like Canada, the United States, the United Kingdom, and Germany, Lithuania and Poland were invited to send experts. Canada was one of the first countries to respond. The DRAB works both as a group and individually.

In the case of Canada, I have been fortunate enough to travel just about every month to Ukraine, to build relationships and provide support and advice to the minister and to our Ukrainian partners in the reform effort.

I'm proud to be a part of Canada's broad, whole-of-defence team and whole-of-government effort in Ukraine. I work very closely with our head of mission in Kiev, Roman Waschuk, and the entirety of our defence team, from our task force commander and incredible team in Yavoriv—and again, I know you visited with them—to my partners in the Canadian Armed Forces, DND, and other government departments.

As you know, the issue of reform is the focus of our work in Ukraine. I am involved in the efforts to help Ukraine maintain its territorial integrity, its sovereignty, and its prosperity. With the inspiration and determination of Ukrainian society, and with the momentum and strength of the revolution of dignity, my role is to help Ukraine achieve its vision of an independent, stable, and democratic country.

The focus of the Defence Reform Advisory Board—in English known as the DRAB, but in name only, we say—and my work is framed by Ukraine's own carefully developed road map for reform in the security and defence sector, the “Strategic Defence Bulletin”. The SDB is a comprehensive document in scope and scale. It seeks to totally reform the defence ministry and the Ukrainian armed forces and other elements of the security sector, from planning, budget, and personnel management through to creating a civilian minister of defence and ensuring civilian oversight of the armed forces. I work very closely with other members of the international community, including most particularly NATO.

Reform is a long and complex process, particularly in defence, and particularly in the midst of the conflict. I'm going to close my opening comments, because you had a lot about the context, about the conflict in the east. It is a major part of the context for Ukraine's current challenges. It's the backdrop against which it is carrying out its reform program. While there are many challenges and there is still much to be accomplished, Ukraine has made and is making progress.

I am pleased to have this opportunity to discuss the issues.

I will be very pleased to answer your questions.

Thank you very much.

4:50 p.m.

Liberal

The Chair Liberal Stephen Fuhr

Thank you very much.

Our first seven-minute round of questions is going to Ms. Alleslev. You have the floor.

4:50 p.m.

Liberal

Leona Alleslev Liberal Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill, ON

Thank you very much.

Thank you very much for being here.

What exciting, interesting, and important work.

My question for you is, how are you measuring progress? How is the Ukraine government measuring progress? As the Defence Reform Advisory Board, how are we measuring progress?

4:50 p.m.

Canadian representative, Ukrainian Defence Reform Advisory Board, Department of National Defence

Jill Sinclair

Thank you very much for that question.

The “Strategic Defence Bulletin” is arranged across five pillars. It has in totality about 162 objectives. Much as we would do it, they have established a reform committee that looks across the five pillars, that has working groups under each one of them. Much as we would do it, some of those committees are highly effective and some of them aren't.

There is a process by which we are trying to put in place metrics to say not simply what's the quantitative output, but what's the qualitative change. Getting to program management and using proper analytics is something that Canada, the United Kingdom, and other countries are trying to support the Ukrainians in putting in place. The way the Ukrainians measure it and the way we measure it from inside the defence ministry is about the same in trying to put in place those metrics.

The other measure, of course, is how the Ukrainian public feels about reform. Interestingly, in the last quarter of 2016 polling, defence reform in Ukraine was seen as one of the most visible and most positive aspects of reform. There is a sense that there is change happening for the good in the Ukrainian public, also.

From the Defence Reform Advisory Board's perspective, how are we measuring it? There are six of us. We have each taken a pillar of the “Strategic Defence Bulletin”, and we are starting to drill down very systematically now that we're a year into our work. What are the actual detailed key performance indicators that we need? Where is there change? Where do we need to focus our efforts? I won't pretend it's a science, because as you know, it's more alchemy and art, but there is a method in our madness.

4:50 p.m.

Liberal

Leona Alleslev Liberal Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill, ON

Outstanding.

Give us a feel for the time frame.

4:50 p.m.

Canadian representative, Ukrainian Defence Reform Advisory Board, Department of National Defence

Jill Sinclair

What's interesting about this process of reform is that the “Strategic Defence Bulletin” is a Ukrainian document. They drafted it. It came out of a RAND report, a first draft, about a year ago. It was promulgated as a totally Ukrainian document. It has clear timelines for everything.

The “Strategic Defence Bulletin” goes out to 2020, by which time Ukraine's aspiration is to be interoperable with NATO. But there are a whole bunch of deadlines and timelines that come before that including, by the end of 2018, Ukraine is to have moved to a civilian minister of defence.

4:50 p.m.

Liberal

Leona Alleslev Liberal Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill, ON

By when?

4:50 p.m.

Canadian representative, Ukrainian Defence Reform Advisory Board, Department of National Defence

Jill Sinclair

By 2018. A civilian minister of defence.

Ukraine is to have moved to full civilian control and oversight of the armed forces by 2020. For every one of these benchmarks, they have a timeline associated with it.

4:50 p.m.

Liberal

Leona Alleslev Liberal Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill, ON

Give us a feel for how they're doing against that timeline.

4:50 p.m.

Canadian representative, Ukrainian Defence Reform Advisory Board, Department of National Defence

Jill Sinclair

You know—

4:50 p.m.

Liberal

Leona Alleslev Liberal Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill, ON

Any kind of change is challenging, so how are they doing?

4:50 p.m.

Canadian representative, Ukrainian Defence Reform Advisory Board, Department of National Defence

Jill Sinclair

I have to say that I think they're doing extremely well, given the context, given the scope of the challenge.

Again, let me just step back. The context here is not just conflict. This is a country that has decided to reform everything, and that was only three and a half years ago. That's everything: economy, land, judiciary, health, education. I'm not trying to sugar-coat this. There is a lot that needs to be done—

4:55 p.m.

Liberal

Leona Alleslev Liberal Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill, ON

Fantastic.

4:55 p.m.

Canadian representative, Ukrainian Defence Reform Advisory Board, Department of National Defence

Jill Sinclair

—but I think it's the momentum, and for me it's about the trajectory.